Thursday, October 18, 2012

Punchestown goes ahead

Good news for N.H, fans- today´s Punchestown meeting goes ahead, although the ground will be very testing. This is the best jumping card so far this autumn, with four Grade Three races, one of them held over from yesterday´s abandoned fixture. That is the mares hurdle over 2 1/4 miles that now opens the card at 14.45 CET. Taria (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) should win this; she was pulled up last time on the flat, when something was obviously not right, but her hurdles form looks plenty good enough, and as a daughter of Lavirco she should have no problems with the going. Trifolium (Charlie Byrnes/ Davy Russell) is clearly the best horse in the 2 mile hurdle at 15.15, but he has been off the track since runner-up here in a Group One in April and now has to give a lot of weight away; we still hope that he will prove good enough, although Miley Shah (JP Kenny/ Barry Geraghty) looks a big danger in receipt of 13 lbs. It is a similar situation in the novice chase at 16.45, where th e vastly-improved Bally Green (Mouse Morris/ Dvid Casey), winner of his last 5 races, has to concede 8 lbs to the very promising Special Tiara (Harry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch). There are only 5 runners in the 2 miles 7 furlongs chase at 17.15 and reasons for opposing all of them. Roi Du Mee (Gordon Elliott/ Paul Carberry) won this race last year but has been struggling since, while Joncol (Paul Nolan/ Robbie Power) has been off the track since running badly at Leopardstown´ s Christmas meeting. However if Joncol is back to his best, he should win at these weights.

The British meetings at Uttoxeter and Wincanton are feeble by comparison, although vwe think that in-form trainer Fergal O´Brien could have a winner at each meeting: Queen of Msntua (Timmy Murphy) at 16.40 at the former track, and Allerton (Paddy Brennan) at 16.50 at the latter. He could also have a chance with Dirleton (Murphy) at 17.10, who has shown nnothing so far but gets weight here from very modest opposition. We don´t know anything about Harry Fry´s form, as this new trainer saddles his first runner today: Subtle Sovereign (Nick Scholfield) in the maiden hurdle at 15.20 at Wincanton. This looks quite an open race, but Fry, Paul Nicholl´ s assistant so far, comes highly recommended and we would not be surprised to see him score with his verty first runner.
Today´s flat racing, on the all-weather at Wolverhampton in the afternoon and Kempton this evening., looks very low grade, but we hope that German-bred Dandy (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune), from a top Röttgen family runs well in the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 21.00 at Kempton.

Punchestown - betting forecast:
1. Race: Tarla - Burn And Turn - Mae`s Choice
2. Race: Trifolium - Miley Shah - Dysios
3. Race: Hot Prospect - Clear Hills - Rule The World
4. Race: Rawnaq - Neighbourly - Jeunopse
5. Race: Baily Green - Special Tiara - Sean Airgead
6. Race: Joncol - Follow The Plan - Arabella Boy
7. Race: Western Star - Dunroe Boy - Sherika
8. Race: Heck Thomas - Sigtrygg Silkbeard - Molly`s Affair