Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Autumn is here

Autumn is here and the jumps racing on offer today at Exeter and Fairyhouse is much more interesting than the flat meetings at Yarmouth and Lingfield. In Ireland there is an all-hurdles card and some interesting prospects on view, notably in the 2 mile hurdle race at 15.35 CET. Final Victory (Gordon Elliott/ Davy Condon) and Cloudgazer (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry) are both expected to make the grade, but the one to watch here is undoubtedly Waaheb (Dermot Weld/ Mark Walsh). This very smart bumper horse is making his debut over sticks here and could go right to the top. In the two maiden races at Fairyhouse our fancies are Cops and Robbers (Meade/ Davy Russell) at 15.05 and Seefood (Dessie Hughes/ Baen Cooper) an hour later.

At Exeter, the novice hurdle at 15.50 is another interesting event. Mr. Mole is a first-ever runner for top owner JP McManus from the Paul Nicholls stable and has the owner´s retained jockey Tony McCoy aboard. He faces some decent opposition, including Melodic Rendezvous (Jeremy Scott/ Nick Scholfield), whose bumper form is arguably better, but we expect Mr. Mole to win. Paul Nicholls also has a good chance in the beginners chases at 16.10 with Rebel Rebellion and at 17.40, both ridden by Ruby Walsh. However the latter does not have much in hand of Gullinbursti (Emma Lavelle/ Dougie Costello) judging by their Doncaster running in January.

At Yarmouth, ex-German De Rigueur (Marco Botti/ Andrea Atzeni), an easy winner on heavy ground at Haydock last month on his second British start, can score again at 16.50. Conditions will be very unpleasant, with heavy ground and fog, and possibly Clumber Place (James Given/ Graham Lee) who won a similar race at Newcastle recently, can take the 7 furlongs fillies handicap at 16.20.

Lingfield stages its second meeting since the all-weather track was relaid, and although jockeys were generally positive last week, the track rides much slower than previously and earlier course form is probably now irrelevant. Punters should therefore be cautious here, but we think that Drawnfromthepast (Jamie Osborne/ Fergus Sweeney), who won at Wolverhampton last week, can defy a penalty and top-weight in the 5 furlongs handicap at 18.00.

Exeter - betting forecast:
1. Race: Vintage Kid - Highland Retreat - Market Option
2. Race: Melodic Rendezvous - Mr Mole - Dom Lukka
3. Race: Module - Johns Spirit - Rebel Rebellion
4. Race: Geminus - Rydalis - No Woman No Cry
5. Race: Gentleman Jeff - Roybuoy - Roll The Dice
6. Race: Rocky Creek - Gullinbursti - Harry Topper
7. Race: Garde La Victoire - Demographic - Allons Zee