Friday, October 26, 2012

6 meetings today

Lots of racing today, and some at a decent standard. Doncaster warms up for tomorrow´s Group One race with a strong card featuring 6 really tough handicaps. Our big hope is The Betchworth Kid (Michael Bell/ Hayley Turner), who carries a 7 lbs penalty for a very easy win at Salisbury 11 days ago; he has a huge weight in the 1 3/4 miles handicap at 16.50 CET, but he loves this track and soft ground and we think he is up to the task.

We are also interested in Aegaeus IEd Dunlop/ Ryan Moore) over 10 furlongs at 17.25; he has so far failed to live up to his pedigree (by Monsun out of multiple Group One winner Ouija Board), but is on a very nice mark and today´s opposition does not look strong. The 6 furlongs handovap at 16.15 looks almost impossoible with 21 runners. Several of these ran in the Portland Handicap over half a furlong shorter here at the St. Leger meeting, and of those we prefer Ancient Cross (Mick Easterby/ Paul Mulrennan), who is better handicapped today; also coming down in the weights are Shropshire (Charlie Hills/ Matthew Lawson) and Advanced (Kevin Ryan/ Paul McGiff).

The Queen has fancied runners in the two divisions of the 2yo maiden at Newbury, Inaugural (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle) at 14.50 and Sea Shanty (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) half an hour later, but we would not be surprised to see her beaten by another one of her trainers Andrew Balding, who saddles the well-bred debutants Absolutely So and Oasis Spirit, both with Jimmy Fortune aboard. Balding also saddles the very lightly-raced Caitlin (David Probert) in the ten furlongs handicap at 17.00; she is impossible to assess, but could well be a handicap snip off bottom weight.

There is N.H. racing this afternoon at Newcastle and Fakenham, with the latter staging two valuable and well-contested handicaps. German-bred Adelar (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), penalised for an easy win at Ffos Las last week, has a chance in the 2 miles hurdle at 16.05, but here we just prefer Vulcanite (Charlie Longsdon/ Tony McCoy) and Laudatory (Nicky Henderson/ Andrew Tinkler). The 3 mile chase at 16.40 looks even more difficult; our 3 against the field are No Loose Change (Paul Nicholls/ Riuby Walsh), coming off a break but highly-rated, German-bred Eleazar (Lucy Wadham/ MG Nolan), who won a hunter chase over this CD in May with this jockey, and Romanesco (Gordon Elliott/ Timmy Murphy), who fell at the last at Cheltenham last week when looking the likely winner.

Main interest at Newcastle is the fact that top Irish jockey Davy Russell has been booked by Nicky Richards to ride his runners in the two divisions of the novice hurdle, Eduard at 13.30 and Duke of Navan half an hour later; we assume that this means they are both serious contestants.

There is all-weather racing this evening at Wolverhampton and Dunfalk. Easily the best race is the 5 furlongs listed event at 21.00 at the Irish track. This has attracted a strong field, including Starspangledbanner (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), winner of the Golden Juilee and July Cup in 2010; he is now back in training after an abortive effort at stud, but on his old form he should win this easily enough; we are not totally convinced, especially with his ouside draw, and would rather just watch. At Wolverhampton we shall give just one more chance to one-time German Derby third Toughness Danon (Brendan Powell/ Seb Sanders) at 19.40; he has so far cost us lots, but we are convinced he is capable of winning off this mark.

Doncaster - betting forecast:
1. Race: King Of Kudos - Breden - Algorithmic
2. Race: Winter Snow - Auction - Vicky Valentine
3. Race: Darkening - Penny Rose - Ronaldinho
4. Race: Prodigality - Khubala - Ancient Cross
5. Race: The Betchworth Kid - Yours Ever - Tiger Cliff
6. Race: The Lock Master - Change The Subject - Aegaeus
7. Race: Hydrant - Brockfield - Uphold
8. Race: She`S A Character - Robert The Painter - Elspeth`S Boy