Monday, September 10, 2012

listed race at Galway

once again the best race today is run in Ireland - the listed race over 1 1/2 miles at 19.05 CET at Galway. Midnight Music (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) is the only 4yo in the field and was a winner here over 2 miles at the Festival in late July. However that was a handicap and we cannot imagine he is good enough to defeat Aidan O´Brien´s two three-year-.old runners Chamonix (Joseph O´Brien) and the filly Demurely (Seamus Heffernan) both by Galileo. Demurely has been racng in good company and hs the higher rating, but Chamonix was so impressie when winning a maiden last time by 12 lerngths that we think he is well up to isted class and can win here. O´Brien can also take the 2yo maiden at 17.05 where he again has two runners Eye of the Storm, with his son Joseph, and Kingdom (Heffernan). Both are very well-bred debutants and are well entered in the autumn´s big juvenile events.
In the U.K. there is flat racing at Bath and Newcastle and N.H. racing at Newton Abbot, all at a very low level. Saeed bin Suroor is in good form now and can land a Newcastle double with Blue Tiger (Paul Hanagan) at 15.30 and Ajuba (Rab Havlin) an hour later; in thelatter event he faces strong opposition from another in-form trainer William Haggas, who runs Sigurwana (Liam Jones). Haggas also sends just one runner to Bath, Pearl War (Harry Bentley) at 15.20, and she can take this poor fillies handicap. At Bath there is also a 2yo handicap over 10 furlongs, a very long trip for juveniles; Stiff Upper Lip (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes - another team in top form) and Heliconia (Sir Mark Prescott/ Luke Morris) both look as if they can stay this distance and one of them will probably win.
The best race at Newton Abbot is the handicap chase at 16.10; Enfant de Lune (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) ran an excellent race over this CD in much better company 8 days ago, and although the ground is much faster today, should win if he can repeat that performance. Pipe also saddles 3 runners in the handicap hurdle an hour later; German-bred Home Run (Conor O´farrell), a close relation to Hurricane Run, is the interesting one despite his very mixed form. Another German-bred who should run well here is Adelar (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) in the novice hurdle at 15.10.; he was an easy CD winner last time and can score egain.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Eye Of The Storm - Kingdom - Mourani
2. Race: Daigreen - Fit The Cove - Cairdiuil
3. Race: Cocktail Hour - Nurpur - Wholelotofrosie
4. Race: Arbitrageur - Consonance - Jappeli
5. Race: Chamonix - Demurely - Midnight Music
6. Race: Forest Minx - Quench The Flame - Wrekin Rock
7. Race: Faanan Aldaar - Three Kingdoms - Hasten