Doncaster St.Leger

The St. Leger is the oldest classic in the world of horse racing and dates back to 1776, its reputation has been up and down over the years, but the race has received a massive boost this year by the participation of 2,000 Guineas and Derby winner Camelot (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien). The unbeaten son of Montjeu will attempt at 16.40 CET to become the first triple crown winner since the great Nijinsky in 1970, who was also trained at Ballydoyle by Aidan´s predecessor Vincent O´Brien (no relation). The previous triple crown winner was Bahram in 1935, so history is not on his side. It must be said however that very few horses in recent years have even attempted to win all three classics.

The question of course is: will he win?
In his favour are the fact that he has by far the best form in the race and that he is highly regarded by his extremely capable trainer, who has already won the four British classics already decided in 2012 and is thus going for an unprecedented clean sweep. He would not be going for it unless he thought that Camelot could succeed. Two factors are against him: one is the fact that the form of his previous wins has not worked out at all well, and that on the whole the 3yo´s this season seem well below par; Camelot is the best of a bad bunch. More important perhaps is the extra distance - two and a half furlongs more than he has ever run before. There is no certainty that he will get the extra trip, even the O´Brien´s do not know. However there is the old turf adage that they will always get the trip once, and his class should pull him through. However he is up against horses already proven over the trip and bred like stayers. We don´t think the fact that he is ridden by the tr ainer´s son Joseph is a problem; Joseph has his critics but has nothing wrong so far on Camelot and seems to get on extremely well with him.

So the next question must be: is he a good bet?
To this we must answer NO. Even though he is the likeliest winner, the very short odds on offer (around 5-2 on) make no appeal whatever in view of the problems he has to face, in particular the extra distance. With 9 runners and a long odds-on favourite, this race is ideal for each-way betting.The 3 runners which make most appeal here are Main Sequence (David Lanigan/ Ted Durcan), and John Gosden´s pair Michelangelo (Frankie Dettori) and Thought Worthy (William Buick). The stable jockey must have thought long and hard before deciding to partner Thought Worthy, a brother to the stable´s 2007 winner Locarno. He won the main trial, the Great Voltigeur, by a neck from Main Sequence and Encke (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Mikael Barzalona) with Thomas Chippendale (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) fifth. That race was run at a false pace and in our view the form is not certain to stand up. Jockeys have made the wrong call many times before and we think that this has happened here; we prefer Mi chelangelo of the Gosden runners, who was third at Goodwood last time on a track that did not suit him; he has a pacemaker now, Dartford (Rab Havlin) to ensure a decent pace. Others to consider are the improving handicappers Guarantee (William Haggas/ Phillip Makin) and Ursa Major (Tommy Carmody/ Johnny Murtagh), the horse that reputedly cost Murtagh his job as the Aga Khan´s jockey in Ireland. However they must both show further improvement to figure in this company.

Main Sequence was runner-up at 5 lengths to Camelot at Epsom, has twice been unlucky since, and we think he is still the most likely place horse in the field, with Michelangelo second best. We will be betting against him, but we still expect Camelot to win, which would be a great result not only for his brave connections but also for all of racing.