Wednesday, August 15, 2012

listed races at Salisbury and Gowran Park

best events in Britain and Ireland today are the two listed races at Salisbury and Gowran Park - with brilliant planning, both are for 3yo+ fillies over ten furlongs, expecially as there are also similar races today in France and Italy. It is therefore not surprising that these races are not really up to listed standard, but with owners looking for valuable black type, there are competitive fields in all of them.
The Salisbury race is at 17.05 CET and the lightly-raced Emirates Queen (Liuca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon) looks the clear form choice here. On only her third racecourse appearance she was a good runner-up in a similar race at at York, and with further improvement likely, she should win here. Qaarida (John Gosden/ Paul Hanagan), a very easy maiden winner in May, but has not been seen since, and the inconsistent German-bred Rumh (Saeed bin Suroor/ Jim Crowley), a daughter of Monsun, are the main dangers. Also at Salisbury, we like the consistent Devdas (Clive Cox/ Adam Kirby) in the mile handicap for 3yo´s at 16.35; he was just beaten last time at Newmarket in one of the closest finishes of the year- 4th in a 5-way photo-finish and this looks easier.
Coolmore obviously want to win the Gowran Park race at 19.55 as they have 4 of the 9 runners, including the top-rated Chrysanthemum (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan), who however must give away a lot of weight and possibly would prefer softer ground. We therefore prefer Aidan O´B´rien´s 3 runners, of whom Devotion (Seamus Heffernan) and Twirl (Pat Smullen) both ran in the Irish Oaks, finishing 5th and last of 7 respectively. The ground that day was desperate and our choice is Twirl, who ran some good races earlier - second in the Musidora for example, although she is not ridden by one of the stable´s regular jockeys.
The other meetings are very low grade. At Beverley, Mick Easterby and jockey Paul Mulrennan have a chance of winning both divisions of the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.25 with Kalk Bay, who won at Redcar at fortnight ago, and with top-weight Barren Brook at 19.00, who is taking a big drop in class. The two evening meetings are both on the all-weather; Sir Mark Prescott has his string in good form and Position (Chris Catlin) can win the mile handicap at 19.15 at Southwell.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Jillnextdoor - King Oliver - Saint Jerome
2. Race: Black Monk - Pira Palace - Al Muntazah
3. Race: Discoverer - Kaafel - Dare To Dream
4. Race: Emirates Queen - Rumh - Oojooba
5. Race: Monopoli - Langley - South Cape
6. Race: George Thisby - Tidal`S Baby - The Name Is Frank