Saturday, June 23, 2012

Rest of Royal Ascot, final day

The rest of Ascot´s Saturday card is really top-class with competitive fields in every race.We start with the listed Chesham Stakes for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs at 15.30 CET, with 15 runners, 9 of them last-time-out winners. This is all guesswork, but Move to Strike (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) comes with strong recommendations from Ireland and looks the one to beat .Mick Channon has 5 runners,of which Chilworth Icon (Martin Harley) has probably the best prospects.

The Group Two Hardwicke Stakes for 4yo´s up over 1 1/2 miles at 16.05 often provides clues to the King George over this CD at the end of July and today´s field looks very strong. The lightly-raced Sea Moon (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) looks a typical Stoute improver - but he was runner-up in the Breeders Cup Turf, so does not have to improve too much.He is top-rated here, but Aiken (John Gosden/ William Buick) looks a worthy opponent, having won his last 6 races. including the Grand Prix de Chantilly last time. Dunaden (Mikel Delzangles/ Christophe Lemaire) and Red Cadeaux (Ed Dunlop/ Tom McLaughlin) were 1-2 in last years Melbourne Cup, separated by a nose. They should run well but over this trip we prefer the two named first. It is interesting that Ed Dunlop has booked Johnny Murtagh for his other runner Testosterone, who was trained last year in France, but Memphis Tennessee (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), third in the 2011 Irish Derby, looks more of a danger.

The meeting traditionally ends with the Queen Alexandra Stakes over 2 3/4 miles at 18.35, which has an unusually large and strong field. Swingkeel (John Dunlop/ Ted Dutrcan) won this last year from Elyaad (Jon Queally/ Fran Berry) and both try again, but today´s opposition looks tougher and is headed by the admirable Overturn (Donald McCain/ Eddie Ahern), runner-up last time under top weight in the Chester Cup, which he won last year, as well as the Northumberland Plate, and also an excellent hurdler - runner-up in the Champion Hurdle. Any more rain would improve the chances of ex-German Dawn Twister (Lucy Wadham/ Paul Hanagen )- another son of Monsun- while French challenger Sharwardi (Alain de Royer-Dupre/ Gerald Mosse) also has a chance. It used to be common for the winner of Tuesday´s Ascot Stakes to win this, so Simenon (Willie Mullins/ Ryan Moore) obviously has a good chance of landing the double.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Move To Strike - Tha`ir - Lovely Pass
2. Race: Sea Moon - Memphis Tennessee - Aiken
3. Race: Black Caviar - Moonlight Cloud - Society Rock
4. Race: Mac`S Power - Alben Star - Medicean Man
5. Race: Camborne - Anatolian - Fiery Lad
6. Race: Simenon - Overturn - Zuider Zee