Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Rest of Royal Ascot: day two

The day starts with a huge field for the Group Three Jersey Stakes for 3yo´s over 7 furlongs at 15.30. Even with some non-runners there are still 23 runners and the race is finely balanced between runners with classic form and those moving up. The classic runners are represented by Aidan O´Brien´s pair Reply (ridden by son Joseph) and the filly Ishvana (Seamie Heffernan), respectively third in the Irish 2,000 and runner-up in the Irish 1,000. Then there is Red Duke (John Quinn/ Tom Queally), third after being hampered in the German 2,000; we like him, but his penalty for winning a Group Two last year makes things difficult. Those up in grade include Sentari (William Haggas/ Johnny Murtagh) and Valbchek (Jeremy Noseda/ Ryan Moore), both unbeaten in two starts, and Aljamaheer (Roger Varian/ Neil Callan), winner of two of his three starts.

The Windsor Forest Stakes at 16.05 is a Group One race for older fillies and mares and three of them stand out here: Emulous (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), winner of 6 of her last 7 starts, Nahrain (Varian/ Callan), who has not run since finishing second at the Breeders Cup meeting and before that won the Prix de l´Opera, and Chachamaidee (Sir Henry Cecil/ Queally), runner-up in this last year. Chachamaideee gets 5 lbs from the other two which must give her a good chance, but she is a tricky ride and mjust be held up till the last possible moment. Emulous is a class act and much more reliable, so she is the selection.

The big betting race today is the Royal Hunt Cup at 17.25, a mile handicap with 30 runners. Obviously almost anything can happen here, especially as the effect of the draw is still not clear; yesterday´s results suiggested that middle-to-high numbers might have an advantage, but it is not at all crystal clear. Invisible Man (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) faces a very tough task under top weight, but he won this in 2010 and finished 3rd last year. so must be regarded as a CD specialist and goes on the short list, together with Edinburgh Knight (Paul d´Arcy/Jim Crowley), Dimension (James Fanshawe/ Murtagh) and the improving Arabian Star (Andrew Balding/ David Probert),
German classic form is again represented by Electrelane (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley), who has top-weight in the listed mile handicap for 3yo fillies at 18.35. Last time out she won the German 1,000 Guineas, which is the best form in the race, but she has a huge weight as a result. We just prefer Hello Glory (David Simcock/ Jamie Spencer), 10 lengths behind her at York and now 13 lbs better off, and the strongly fancied Irish raider Duntle (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan).