Saturday, May 26, 2012

Irish 2,000 Guineas at the Curragh

plenty of good racing this weekend, but the top races are the Irish Guineas at the Curragh and today´s 2,000 at 16.15 CET tops the bill. Unfortunately Jim Bolger´s ante-post favourite Parish Hall misses the race with a leg infection, so the place to look is the Newmarket equivalent a fortnight ago, in which French challenger Hermival (Mikel Delzangles/ Gregory Benoist) finished third, Trumpet Major (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) fourth, Born to Sea (John Oxx/ Pat Smullen) twelfth and Power (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) a very disappointing seventeenth. The much faster ground today will suit Trumpet Major and we expect him to reverse the form with Hermival, but the other two could still be dangerous despite their poor showing then. Born to Sea will now be wearing first-time blinkers, and if he settles better, this brother to Galileo and Sea the Stars could run a big race. Oxx also saddles the Aga Khan´s Takar (Johnny Murtagh) and he should also figure prominently, while O´Brien also sends Kentucky Derby flop Daddy Long Legs (Colm O´Donoghue), consistent Wrote (Seamus Heffernan) and, presumably as a pacemaker, Reply (Fran Berry). This is a very open race with several possibilities, but we have a sneaking fancy for Born to Sea while Trumpet Major looks an each-way banker.
Three are two Group Three races on the undercard - the Greenlands Stakes over 6 furlongs at 15.40 and the Equestrian Stakes for older fillies and mares at 16.50. There are 9 runners in the latter race but it should really only concern Emulous (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), who has won 5 of her last 6 races, including this one last year and the Group One Matron Stakes, and Alanza (John Oxx/ Murtagh), who has won 4 of her 7 career starts. They are both penalised, but it will be a surprise if any of the others get a look-in.
The Greenlands looks much more open and the field includes the first 3 from last year Hitchens (David Barron/ Fran Berry), Tiddliwinks (Kevin Ryan/ Smullen) and Santo Padre (David Marnane/ Fergal Lynch) as well as some interesting 3yo´s. Fire Lily (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan) was a close 5th in the French 1,000 Guineas and is now back in distance, as is Crusade (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) was an unlucky 6th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile after showing smart form to win the Middle Park at Newmarket.. Hitchens, who ran some fine races at the Meydan meeting earlier in the year, is very reliable and is our suggestion.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Teoirim - Delight - Highest Praise
2. Race: Liberating - Infanta Branca - Cay Verde
3. Race: Fire Lily - Crusade - Hitchens
4. Race: Hermival - Power - Takar
5. Race: Emulous - Alanza - Law Of The Range
6. Race: Croi An Or - Sweet Lightning - Banna Boirche
7. Race: Chicago - Sindjara - Van Rooney