Sunday, May 06, 2012

Guineas double for O`Brien?

Camelot duly won yesterday´s 2,000 Guineas for Aidan and Joseph O´Brien and the unbeaten Maybe looks to have a good chance of completing the stable double in today´s 1,000 Guineas at 16.15 CET at Newmarket. Maybe won all her 5 starts in 2011 in the style of a very smart filly, signing off in the Moyglare, and is the clear form choice. However, just like Camelot yesterday, we cannot recommend her as a good bet as she is no value at the likely skinny price. Alternatives are Godolphin´s two runners Discourse (Mikael Barzalona) and Lyric of Light (Frankie Dettori), both unbeaten at two and representing trainer Mahmood al Zarooni who won this race last year. Both should go well, but we think Frankie has made the right choice. The sole French runner Mashoora (Jean-Claude Rouget/ Christophe Soumillon), winner of the Prix Imprudence, is also expected to run well, while the winner of the Newbury trial, the Fred Darling, Moonstone Magic (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley) has been supplemente d for 30,000 GBP, which certainly indicates confidence. Apart from the favourite. there are 4 more Irish runners. of whom La Collina (Kevin Prendergast/ Declan McDonough), who once ran Maybe close last year, appears the strongest. To sum up, Maybe can win and probably will, but we would need 2-1 or better before backing her. In our opinion, Lyric of Light, Moonshine Magic and La Collina are the best each way alternatives.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Anatolian - Sandusky - Caucus
2. Race: Timepiece - Khawlah - Izzi Top
3. Race: Maybe - Lyric Of Light - Moonstone Magic

4. Race: Seal Rock - The Confessor - Maarek
5. Race: Mysterial - Gold Hunter - New Pearl
6. Race: Lacily - Hazel Lavery - Arsaadi
7. Race: Samba King - Good Of Luck - Mubaraza