Sunday, March 11, 2012

3 N.H. meetings today

with Cheltenham just round the corner, there is no reason to expect good jumps racing today, but in fact the Irish meeting at Naas features some smart performers. The Grade Three novice chase at 15.45 CET has only 3 runners, but 2 of them are of genuine Cheltenham class. Bog Warrior (Tony Martin/ Davy Russell) in particular looks a real star in the making; he has won all 5 of his completed races and has been a very impressive winner on several occasion. He has however fallen twice and cannot afford any errors today, as Flemenstar (Peter Casey/ Andrew Lynch) has won his last 3 races and is actually rated even higher.
The Leinster National, a 3 mile handicap chase at 17.20, is the main supporting feature and top-weight Roberto Goldback (Dessie Hughes/ Barry Geraghty) is our choice here. He is much better than a handicapper and although he is conceding a lot of weight all round, we think he is up to the task. Spanish Auriga (Jessica Harrington/ Robbie Power) has been placed numerous times and can finally get his head in front in the beginners chase at 16.45, while the opening novice hurdle at 15.15 is an open race in which all 9 runners are winners; Lord Windermere (Jim Culloty/ Tom Doyle) has a double penalty but also has a bit of class and may be good enough.
The cards at the two British meetings are tame by comparison. The most interesting runner at Warwick is Shakalakaboomboom (Nicky Henderson/ Andrew Tinkler), who runs in the novice hurdle over an extended 3 miles at 16.05. A top staying chaser, he is being aimed at the Grand National, but has never won over hurdles and is therefore eligible for this modest event. Tony McCoy is travelling to Market Rasen for just two rides, Babysitter at 16.20 and The Mad Robertson at 17.55, both trained by Jonjo O´Neill, and we think that they can both score.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Lord Windermere - Ballysteen - Ballynacree
2. Race: Bog Warrior - Flemenstar - Frisco Depot
3. Race: Maggie Connolly - Lastoftheleaders - Cootamundra
4. Race: Spanish Auriga - Baily Green - Grey Soldier
5. Race: Tullintain - Roi du Mee - Roberto Goldback
6. Race: A Fine Young Man - Present Potential - Big Generator
7. Race: Operating - Catamongdepidgeons - Knocklong