Saturday, January 28, 2012

super card at Cheltenham trials day

today´s card at Cheltenham is intended to feature some trials for the top events at the N.H. Festival here in just over 6 weeks time and in this it has succeeded as many of today´s runners will certainly be in the shake-up for the big meeting. First and foremost, the outstanding Big Bucks (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), the highest-rated hurdler in training, who is going for his 15th successive win in the Grade Two Cleeve Hurdle at 3 miles at 16.40 CET. He is hot favourite for the World Hurdle, which he has won for the past 3 years, and of course looks almost unbeatable this afternoon. Mourad (Willie and Danny Mullins), third to him in the 2011 World Hurdle look next best, but we also expect Dynaste (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), ridden too aggressively against him last time at Ascot, to finish much closer now. Anything other than a clear victory for Big Bucks, who is bound to start at long odds-on, would be the shock of the season.
The Grade Two Argento Chase over 3 miles 1 furlong at 15.35 is intended as a Gold Cup trial, but the two favourites for that race. Kauto Star and Long Run, are missing. In their absense Captain Chris (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), a well-beaten third to that pair in the King George, can take top spot now. He won the Arkle over 2 miles at the 2011 Festival, but is unproven at today´s distance. There are also doubts about most of the others. Midnight Chase (Neil Mulholland/ Dougie Costello and Tidal Bay (Nicholls/ Walsh) finished fifth and sixth in last year´s Gold Cup; of these we prefer the latter, now with the champion trainer. Diamond Harry (Nick Williams/ Noel Fehily) has only run once since winning the 2010 Hennessy. Time for Rupert (Paul Webber/ Denis O´Regan) usually runs well here and should definitely be placed, but we hope that Captain Chris stays the trip and wins.
Th othr rc with strong baring on th Fstovl i th 4o hurdl trht opn th crd t13.55. Only 6 runners, but all with good form and they include Grumeti (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson), Baby Mix (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) and Hollow Tree (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), all prominent in the Triumph betting. The unbeaten Pearl Swan (Nicholls/ Walsh) and Tango de Juilley (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) are also possible here. Baby Mix started at 14-1 on his British debut but was impressive when beating Hinterland over this CD at the December meeting. A good performance now would certainly point to Hinterland´s chances in the handicap hurdle at 17.15, who could round off a good day for the Nicholls/ Walsh team.They also have a chance with Aerial in the handicap chase at 15.05, but Nicholls has 3 runners here and we fancy his course specialist and top-weight Poquelin (Harry Derham).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Grumeti - Baby Mix - Hollow Tree
2. Race: Royale`S Charter - Mr Chow - Made In Time
3. Race: Aerial - The Giant Bolster - Woolcombe Folly
4. Race: Captain Chris - Time For Rupert - Diamond Harry
5. Race: Broadbackbob - Knight Pass - Batonnier
6. Race: Big Buck`S - Mourad - Dynaste
7. Race: Hinterland - Dare Me - Sivola De Sivola