Saturday, January 07, 2012

Sandown today

by normal Saturday standards, today´s cards are not very strong, and easily the best racing takes place at Sandown. Main event is the Grade One Tolworth Hurdle for novices at 15.35 CET, only 5 runners, but some of them still with Cheltenham pretensions. Prospect Wells (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) is the likely favourite here after a good performance in a top handicap at Ascot last time; he was also smart on the flat, having finished runner-up in the Grand Prix de Paris and also a listed winner in the U.K. We are not totally convinced and oppose him with Colour Squadron (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), who is moving up sharply in grade and looked good at Newbury last time, despite running very green. French import Captain Conan (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) is another interesting candidate on his British debut.
Henderson and Geraghty have another ex-French runner in the 4yo hurdle at 14.35, Soliwery, runner-up at Auteuil last time, but here we like Fire Fighter (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson), making his debut over hurdles but was previously quite busy on the flat and a winner of 4 races; King is very strong in the juvenile hurdlers department, and this one is reputed to be one of his best.
The handicap chase over 3 miles at 16.10 is the richest race on the card, and both Henderson and Nicholls saddle two runners. Ruby Walsh rides top-weight Neptune Collonges, and he is our selection; he ran well at Ascot last time, and has been facing much stronger opposition in most of his races. Henderson also has two runners in the handicap hurdle at 15.05, the top-weights Tanks for That (Geraghty) and Dave´s Dream (David Bass), both of whom have been running mainly at Cheltenham. We prefer Dave´s Dream, whose form is better than his recent figures might indicate.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Kaffie - Kells Belle - The Strawberry One
2. Race: Fire Fighter - Soliwery - Colebrooke
3. Race: All For Free - Tanks For That - Rileyev
4. Race: Prospect Wells - Colour Squadron - Captain Conan
5. Race: Master Of The Hall - The Knoxs - Hold On Julio
6. Race: Alarazi - Higgy`S Ragazzo - Havingotascoobydo