Sunday, January 08, 2012

graded race at Naas

a poor afternoon´s sport in Britain and Ireland, with the Grade Two novice hurdle over 2 1/2 miles at 14.40 CET at Naas the best event. There are only 6 runners, with Dedigout (Tony Martin/ Davy Russell), winner of his last two, expected to be able to give 3 lbs to Lyreen Legend (Dessie Hughes/ BJ Cooper). Otherwise the day could once again be dominated by the in-form team of Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh. They can take the novice chase at 14.10 with the promising Lambro and also the maiden hurdle at 15.10 with the mare Hats and Heels, making her debut over timber after two useful performances in bumpers. Mullins also runs Un Atout in today´s bumper at 16.40 with son Paddy in the saddle, and in view of the stable´s excellent strike rate in such events he has to be respected. However there are two very well-bred opponents in the field, Director´s Forum (Jessica Harrington/ Mr.M.Fahey) and Silver Concorde (Dermot Weld/ Robbie McNamara) who could prove dangerous, especially the former, a very rare N.H. runner for top flat owner Ballymacoll Stud.
The two U.K. meetings are much lower grade. At Hereford it usually pays to follow local trainer Venetia Williams, even more so now that she has hit form. We like the chances of German-bred Lightning Strike, who has top weight in the handicap hurdle at 15.30. He was previously quite a smart performer, but missed all of 2010 and showed nothing in his 3 starts last year. However he has been dropped quite a lot in the ratings and it is a long time since he ran in such lowly company. We hope that he can continue his trainer´s hot run and she also has chances with Sawpit Samba in the maiden hurdle at 14.00 and the unraced Dungeness in the bumper at 17.00; all those mentioned are partnered by stable jockey Aidan Coleman.
The card at the all-weather fixture at Southwell is dreadful and bets should be kept to a minimum. The best race is the 3yo handicap over 6 furlongs at 15.50, but there are only 5 runners and the consistent Ishiamiracle (Phil McEntee/ Danny Brock), who ended a long run of placed efforts with an easy win here over 5 furlongs 10 days ago, should win again.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Gentleman Duke - Sportsmaster - Hisaabaat
2. Race: Lambro - Flemenstar - Monastrell
3. Race: Dedigout - Lyreen Legend - Monksland
4. Race: Hats And Heels - Beef To The Heels - Done En Dusted
5. Race: Luke`S Benefit - Hans Crescent - Moville
6. Race: Szabo`S Destiny - Some Say - William Wordsworth
7. Race: Un Atout - Silver Concorde - Director`s Forum