Thursday, January 19, 2012

4 jumps meetings today

The frost is all gone and there should no problems at today´s 4 N.H. meetings, the best of which is at Thurles, with surprisingly small fields for an Irish fixture. The main event is the Grade Two Kinloch Brae Chase over 2 1/2 miles at 14.35, with just 5 runners. Follow the Plan (Oliver McKiernan/ Tom Doyle) won this last year from Roberto Goldback (Dessie Hughes/ Nina Carberry), but the latter can reverse the placings on better terms today. Apt Approach (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh), much improved this season, is the obvious danger but is held on earlier form by Roberto Goldback, who is therefore our selection. Mullins and Walsh still look likely to have a good day and can take the Grade Three novice chase at 15.05 with Dare to Doubt and also the novice chase half an hour later with Bishopsfurze. The opening novice hurdle at 14.05 is a hot race, with 7 of the 8 runners being last-time-out winners. Walsh here rides Benefficient for Tony Martin, while Mullins puts up his son Pa ddy on top-weight Pickapocketortwo; these two can fight out the finish, with slight preference fo the former, impressive last time out at Navan. The hunters chase that closes the card at 17.05 is another interesting race, with the smart Merchant Royal (Dermot Weld/ Robbie McNamara) set to give 7 lbs to The Tother One (Stnners/ Quelly), who last ran in the Grand National. In theory The Tother One should win, but we are great Weld fans and hope Merchant Royal can score.

In the U.K. there are several German-breds running who should give a good account of themselves. Val Mondo (Venetia Williams/Aidan Coleman) won the German St. Leger in 2010, but his 3 British starts over hurdles have been disastrous; however his trainer is now in much better form and we shall give him one more chance in the novice hurdle at 14.00 at Lingfield. However we do not like Speedy Directa (Brendan Powell/ Edmond Lineham), who runs in the handicap hurdle at 16.30, whose form is equally bad, as we feel he needs better ground.
Another ex -German classic winner is Aviso (David Evans/ Lee Stephens) who goes for the selling hurdle at 14.10 at Ludlow. He has suddenly hit form on the flat, winning his last two races, and if he jumps better than on his previous efforts over sticks, must have a good chance in this company. Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty can land a short-priced double here with Kid Cassidy at 16.10 and Brave Alliance half an hour later.

At Taunton, the Lando gelding Passato must have a solid each-way chance in the handicap chase at 16.50, while the well-bred Suspect (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob), closely related to Shirocco, could go well in the bumper at 17.20. Nicholls also runs the lightly-raced Ranjaan in the handicap hurdle at 16.20, who will start a hot favourite after his easy win last time at Kempton, but we shall take a chance here with Numide (Rod Millman/Johnny Farrelly), who has come down a lot in the weights.