Saturday, December 17, 2011

Ascot today - Big Buck´s for 14th successive win

Feature of an excellent Saturday card at Ascot is the Grade One Long Walk Hurdle over 3 miles at 15.30 CET. In theory this should be easy for Big Buck´s (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), who is unbeaten since his unlucky defeat in the 2008 Hennessy and is going for his 14th successive win. He is the highest-rated hurdler in training and on official ratings has more than a stone in hand here. The only danger would appear to be the improving Dynaste (David Pipe/ Conor O´Farrell) who won in a canter at Haydock last time and is regarded in the stable as the successor to the very smart Grands Crus. However Grand Crus could never beat Big Buck´s , so why should this one? One slight problem could be the fact that Big Buck´s has scored all his victories (including this race twice, when it was run at Newbury) on left-handed tracks, whereas Ascot is the other way round; however it is a straightforward track, and basically there should be no problem for Big Buck´s. However he is hardly wor th a bet at the likely price.
Nicholls and Walsh can also win the graduation chase at 14.55 with the promising Aerial; Hell´s Bay (Colin and Joe Tizzard) is top-rated here, but we prefer Giorgio Quercus (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) as the likeliest danger.
It could be another good day for the champion trainer, as we expect him to win the final two handicaps on the card as well. Ruby Walsh rides The Minack at 16.05 and Prospect Wells half an hour later and both are likely to atart favourite, but we would not be surprised to see Nicholls´ top-weights Neptune Collonges and Brampour, both partnered by the trainer´s teenage nephew Harry Derham, run into the places as well. However Irish hope Sailors Warn (Edward O´Grady/ Tony McCoy) looks a big danger in the last race, the most valuable event of the day.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Foxbridge - Water Garden - Grabtheglory
2. Race: Renard - Tara Royal - Hold Fast
3. Race: Hell`S Bay - Aerial - Giorgio Quercus
4. Race: Big Buck`S - Dynaste - Restless Harry
5. Race: The Minack - Benbane Head - Massini`S Maguire
6. Race: Prospect Wells - Gibb River - Abergavenny