Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Lots of runners

Large fields at all 5 meetings today, with 121 runners declared for Nottingham alone. Best race here is the 10 furlongs handicap at 16.15 CET with 16 runners. This is quite a decent race, but the lightly-raced Monsun colt Midsummer Sun (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) looks the answer. He has won 2 of his 4 starts, and although flopping twice, looks as if is much better than a handicapper.

He is certainly bred to be, as he is a half-brother to the multiple Group One winner Midday from one of Khalid Abdullah´s best families. Another runner with German connections here is Waldvogel (Nicky Richards/ Tom Eaves), but the trip is probably too short for this son of German St. Leger winner Wurftaube - also dam of Waldpark- and the ground too soft. We think that ex-Italian Fattsota (Marco Botti/ Adam Kirby) could be more of a danger.

There are also big fields for the all-weather meetings, this afternoon at Lingfield and this evening at Kempton,but much less quality. At the former track, the one time German group winner Aspectus (Jamie Osborne/ Sophie Doyle) could run well at a big price in division one of the mile handicap at 17.05. He has so far failed to win in 16 U.K. starts, but is now on a very attractive mark and also ran well (2nd of 11) on his only start at this track. At Kempton, in view of the amazing form of the stable´s 2yo´s we fancy Graphic (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) to win the conditions race for juvniles over a mile at 20.40, although it looks quite a tricky race.

There is N.H. racing today at Wetherby and Punchestown. We expect Border Reiver (Tim Easterby/ Dougie Costello) to run well off bottom weight in the handicap chase at 16.55 at the Yorkshire track. He has won his last 3 starts here and gets quite a bit of weight from the main dangers. The handicap hurdle half an hour earlier can go to German-bred Glorybe (another Monsun) (CCBealby/ Tom Messenger), who won over this CD when last seen in April and seems well handicapped.

In Ireland the main event is the listed mares hurdle at 16.20. Elyaadi (John Queally/ Niall Madden) finished third in this last year, and only 10 days ran in a Group One on the flat at Longchamp (she finished last in the Cadran), and has an obvious chance, but we much prefer the 4yo Chaperoned (Jessica Harrington/ Robbie Power), who fell the last time she ran over hurdles but was a good second on the flat last week.