Saturday, September 17, 2011

3 group races at Newbury

although the Ayr Gold Cup, one of the biggest betting races of the year, grabs the headlines today, there is in fact a much classier card at Newbury, with 3 group races. The grandly -named Arc trlal at 15.00 CET is nothing of the sort, but is still quite an open-looking event, in which we go for the sole 3yo in the field, Al Kazeem (Roger Charlton/ Steve Drowne).
The Mill Reef Stakes for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs at 15.30 is always one of the top juvenile races, and Gimcrack winner Caspar Netscher (Alan McCabe/ Kieren Fallon) is the likely favourite here, despite having to give away weight. Although he ran badly last time, we hope to see Redact (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) come back to form here. The stable continues in tremendous form and that Ripon blip can be forgiven.
Frankie Dettori is here to ride the well-bred debutant Mighty Ambition for Godolphin in the 2yo maiden at 14.25, but we also expect him to win the 5 furlongs sprint at 16.40 on James Fanshawe´s Deacon Blue, who has won his last 3 races and is one of the fastest horses around. His form is all at 6 furlongs, over which trip he was most impressive in Ireland last time, but this distance should pose no problem, especially as the race is sure to be run at a furious pace.
Newbury also stages a tough handicap, this time over 10 furlongs at 16.05 with 20 runners. Mark Johnston saddles 4 runners here and we hope to see his German-bred Malthouse (Tony Eaves) come out best of them.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Mighty Ambition - Aazif - Firestarter
2. Race: Green Destiny - Sri Putra - Dangerous Midge
3. Race: Caspar Netscher - Saigon - B Fifty Two
4. Race: Labarinto - Dhaamer - Kirthill
5. Race: Deacon Blues - Night Carnation - Medicean Man
6. Race: Golden Jubilee - Moidore - Miblish
7. Race: Democretes - Shere Khan - Ortac Rock
8. Race: Mrs Greeley - Ellie In The Pink - Loving Thought