York Ebor Meeting: Ebor Handicap

Today´s card at York is one of the toughest of the year for punters and anyone who gets the placepot up must be congratulated and should pick up a hefty dividend as well. The main event is the Ebor Handicap over 1 3/4 miles at 16.40 CET, the most valuable handicap of the entire season and also the most difficult, as all 20 runners can claim chances here. The first problem to be solved is how form in group races will work out in top handicaps. For example, Lost in the Moment /Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) was only beaten a head in the Goodwood Cup last time, with today´s top-weight Fox Hunt (Mark Johnston/ Silvestre de Sousa) a close fourth. In theory this gives the Godolphin runner a great chance here, and a further clue may be provided by the Goodwood winner Opinion Poll, who is favourite for the Group Two Lonsdale Cup 35 minutes earlier. Saptapadi (Brian Ellison/ Kieren Fallon) was fifth in the York Stakes (10 furlongs) to Twice Over, form which now looks pretty smart, and is also officially well-in on that form.

We are a bit sceptical about the way this form will work out and prefer to stick to handicap form. Of particular interest are the two Irish runners, as challengers from Ireland have a good record here. Salute Him (Tony Martin/George Baker) was fifth last year and has been dropped in the weights, having shown little since; however this does not mean much as he seems to have been laid out for this race and his trainer is always dangerous in these big staying handicaps. The form of Mount Athos (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan) is easier to read and his victory last year in the Melrose Handicap at this meeting clearly puts him in the picture.

Sir Michael Stoute has a strong hand with two runners, Modun (Richard Hughes) and Blissful Moment (T0m Queally), both runners-up the last twice, of whom we prefer the former, who should be better suited by this trip than the 10 furlongs he has been running over recently. He is a half-brother to Saptapadi so should have no problems with the distance.

Two more Newmarket runners we like are Ted Spread (Mark Tompkins/ Paul Hanagan), who has a big weight but is also classy, and especially Tactician (Michael Bell/ Joseph O´Brien). This one is owned by the Queen, who has already enjoyed a big winner at the meeting, and was an impressive winner of a similar race over this CD 7 weeks ago; he has 6 lbs more but this good claimer takes off 3lbs. The stable could hardly be in better form, having won the Nunthorpe here yesterday, amd Tactician is our selection is this very tricky race.