Saturday, July 23, 2011

King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot

the "King George", named after the parents of the present Queen, is always a high class event and that is the case again, even though there only 5 runners in the 1 1/2 mile Group One race at 17.30 CET. Debussy (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Ahmed Ajtebi) is presumably in the race as a pacemaker for his more fancied stable companion Rewilding (Frankie Dettori), but even he is a Group One winner and can be backed at 100-1(!). Still if Godolphin are to win this race again, it can only be with Rewilding, who beat So You Think after a titanic battle at Royal Ascot and before that won the Sheema Classic in Meydan in March. Sir Michael Stoute has won this race for the past two years and now relies on Workforce (Ryan Moore); the winner of last year´s Derby and Arc is the logical form choice, but the fact that he flopped in this race year ago is a slight problem. The recent rain is to his advantage, although it seems that the track is now drying out again. Any more rain would certainly help th e supplemented Nathaniel (John Gosden/ William Buick), the only 3yo in the field. He is moving up in grade after an impressive win at Royal Ascot, but 3yo´s have a poor record in this race, which in recent years has almost always gone to a 4yo. That age group is also represented by St. Nicholas Abbey (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), a top 2yo who was a major flop last season but is now coming back to his best and won the Coronation Cup last time. The trainer raised plenty of eyebrows by putting up his teenage son, but Joseph won the Irish 2,000 for the stable this year and certainly knows what is required. With such a small field, this is bound to be a tactical affair and much will depend on the fractions set by the camel driver on Debussy. We would love to see Rewilding win, which would be a boost for German breeding, as his sire the Grman-bred Tiger Hill stands at Fährhof, but logic dictates that Workforce is the likeliest winner. It is still not clear what went wrong last year , and his trainer has - rightly or wrongly- taken the blame for that poor performance, but Stoute is unlikely to get it wrong again.
The rest of the Ascot card is also classy but very tricky, especially the 24-runner International Stakes, a 7 furlongs handicap at 16.50, in which almost anything could win; Excellent Guest (George Margarson/ Philip Robinson), a consistent perfomer in such races, is our each-way selection.
The Princess Margaret Stakes, a Group Three race for 2yo fillies at 15.40 is always won by a topnotch filly and Stoute and Moore can also take this with Russelliana, while the lady riders handicap that traditionally opens the card at 14.30 is another tough handicap. We go for longshot Fishforcomliments (Richard Fahey/ Alyson Deniel), a notoriously difficult character who might possibly put his best foot forwards for this talented rider.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Lightning Cloud - First Cat - Divine Call
2. Race: Pearl Charm - Talwar - Trumpet Major
3. Race: Russelliana - Regal Realm - Angels Will Fall
4. Race: Albaasil - Rave - My Freedom
5. Race: Hawkeyethenoo - Excellent Guest - The Confessor
6. Race: Workforce - St Nicholas Abbey - Rewilding
7. Race: Aiken - Masaraat - Parlour Games