Sunday, July 17, 2011

Irish Oaks at the Curragh

There are three meetings in the U.K. today, plus an all Arab card at Newbury, but the top events are in Ireland, with the Irish Oaks at 16.45 CET taking pride of place. 9 runners here, including the winner Dancing Rain (William Haggas/ Johnny Murtagh), runner-up Wonder of Wonders (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore) and beaten favourite and 4th-placed Blue Bunting (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Frankie Dettori) from the Oaks at Epsom.

Dancing Rain made all the running then, but at a false pace, so it would be no surprise to see this result reversed today. Haggas, of course, does not agree, but he is in a minority and Wonder of Wonders is hot favourite to go one better this time. O´Brien has two more runners - Gemstone (Colm O´Donoghue) and Amazing Beauty, partnered by his son Joseph, who will probably make the running, so Dancing Rain will have no easy lead this time. In addition Godolphin have supplemented German-bred Rumh (Saeed bin Suroor/ Pat Smullen), presumably also to ensure a proper pace, so there will be no hanging about today. In addition the shrewd Jim Bolger has a pacemaker in the race for his main hope Banimpire (Kevin Manning), a really tough filly who has won 5 of her 7 starts this season, including the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot. Laughing Lashes (Jessica Harrington/ Fran Berry) was third in the Irish 1,000 and is also not out of it. But basically it all comes down to the Epsom form. Aidan O ´Brien has a fantastic record in the Irish classics and his stable is enjoying a real purple patch, but Blue Bunting looked like a very smarl filly when winning the 1,000 Guineas and had everything against her at Epsom - including an unusually poor ride by Dettori- and we hope that she can out the record right this time.

Also at the Curragh this afternoon are two Group Three races, the Anglesey Stakes for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs at 15.40, and the Kilboy Estate Stakes for fillies and mares over 9 furlongs at 16.10. The latter has a relatively weak field; Seta (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon) looks best of the older fillies, but we expect the 3yo´s to come out on top, notably Wild Wind (O´Brien/ Moore) and Claiomh Solais (Bolger/ Manning). The 2yo race looks more open, but the Coolmore team, with 3 runners trained by O´Brien and another one from the David Wachman stable, hold a strong hand. British raider Fulbright (Mark Johnston/ Dettori) is the obvious threat.

As far as the future is concerned, the opening 2yo maiden at 15.10 could be of even greater interest, and this race is almost always won by a subsequent Group race winner. With well-bred runners from the O´Brien,Weld, Lyons and Harrington camps, this is not a race to bet on, but certainly one to watch and the winner must be followed. The best jumps race today also comes from Ireland, and that is the Grade Three hurdle at 16.35 at Tipperary, which has attracted a very strong field for the time of year. Jumbo Rio (Edward O`Grady/ Andrew McNamara) won this in 2009 and has chances of repeating this victory, while Captain Cee Bee (Eddie Harty/ Tony McCoy) is a top-notch chaser. However our selection is Muirhead (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry), who is not far behind the very best 2 mile hurdlers.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Newbury Hall - Apollo - Hit The Jackpot
2. Race: Fire Lily - Fulbright - After
3. Race: Seta - Claiomh Solais - Wild Wind
4. Race: Wonder Of Wonders - Dancing Rain - Blue Bunting

5. Race: Dimona - Bondage - Scottish Boogie
6. Race: Confessional - Celerina - Cheviot
7. Race: Gold Mirage - Solar Sail - Late Day Sun
8. Race: Allegra Tak - Fiddle Player - Foot Perfect