Saturday, July 16, 2011

German winners in France?

With Longchamp new closed for the summer, and Chantilly closed while a new all-weather track is being built, the action in France will soon switch to the Normandy coast, and there will be very little racing in Paris in the coming weeks. However Maisons-Laffitte stages a strong card today with two group races and German runners in each. The Prix Messidor at 15.40 CET is run over the straight mile and Sir Oscar (Toni Potters/ Andreas Suborics) is the German hope. Much as we would like to see him score for his adorable owner, we fear that the winner will come from England, as Roger Charlton has described Cityscape (Maxime Guyon) as one of the best horses he has ever trained, in which case he should win this easily.

The tiercé handicap at 15.08 is also run over the straight mile, and Layer Cake (Christian Sprengel/ Suborics) has top weight here, but certainly has an each way chance, and the same goes for Electric Roi (Hans-Walter Hiller/ Dominique Boeuf) in the second and easier division. However the best German chance of the day is in our view Smooth Operator (Mario Hofer/ Terry Hellier) in the Prix de Ris Orangis over 1200 metres at 16.10. He was beaten by the draw last time at Hamburg, but a repetition of his Baden-Baden form would give him a great chance here. The top Italian sprinter Blu Constellation (Vincente Caruso/ Mirco Demuro) is the obvious danger, especially as he goes well at this track. If the locals have a chance of winning this, it can only be with Spectacle de Mars (Xavier Nakkachdji/ Gregoire Benoist).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Concealing - Newcastle - Flying Scotsman
2. Race: Manjakani - Intercepteur - Aussiwave
3. Race: Miss Lago - Famous Lilly - Vapour
4. Race: Stelrock - Issacar - Ball Prince
5. Race: Cityscape - Polytechnicien - Sandagiyr
6. Race: Blu Constellation - Spectacle Du Mars - Smooth Operator

7. Race: Hallssio - American Ganster - The Nought Man
8. Race: Electric Roi - Quirinus - Sumatra Tiger