final day of Ascot July meeting

today is the third and final day of Ascot´s big July meeting and the best race is the 5 furlongs handicap at 18.10 CET. This looks a really tough event in which none of the 13 runners is without a chance. Top-weight Medicean Man (Jeremy Gask/ Harry Bentley) is very consistent and has won twice over CD, including a fortnight ago, when he beat Sohraab (Hughie Morrison / Kieren O´Neill) by half a length; the latter is 4 lbs better off and there is little between them. Duchess Dora (John Quinn/ Ryan Moore) is much improved and has won her last two races, but now meets Lost in Paris (Tim Easterby/ Hayley Turner), who she defeated at Chester a month ago, on13 lbs worse terms. David Elsworth saddled two winners yesterday and can follow up with Swiss Franc (Jamie Spencer), a Newmarket winner last time, with Judge ´n Jury (Ron Harris/ Luke Morris) third, who won this 2 years ago; he has not won since but has dropped a long way in the weights since. Spencer rides the well-bred Blue Ti ger for Godolphin in the opening 2yo maiden, a race which is invariably won by a top-notcher, and Saeed bin Suroor can follow up with Burj Nahar (Richard Mullen) in the 1 1/2 miles handicap at 16.25; this one has only ever run twice, winning both times, and scored well at Newmarket a month ago after nearly 20 months off. He has a great pedigree and is almost certainly much better than a handicapper.
Although there are only 5 runners, the listed race over a mile at 16.50 at Pontefract is a fascinating event. Saeed bin Suroor saddles Emerald Commander (Ted Durcan) here, who came close to beating Alianthus a week ago at Düsseldorf. However the one to beat is clearly Cityscape /Roger Charlton/ Steve Drowne) - if he lines up. The trainer has repeatedly withdrawn him at the last moment because of the fast ground. He will probably walk the track before making a final decision today.
There was a decent handicap for lady riders at Ascot yesterday and there is another one, but over a longer distance, at 16.00 at Carlisle today, with many of the same jockeys travelling north to take part. We lost our money yesterday on Alyson Deniel (fifth!) but might be able to get it back when she partners Mark Johnston´s Solicitor.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Blue Tiger - Zumbi - Regal Gold
2. Race: King Ferdinand - Blanche Dubawi - Foxtrot Hotel
3. Race: Burj Nahar - Kiama Bay - Warlu Way
4. Race: Gatewood - Grumeti - Groomed
5. Race: Regal Heiress - Nabah - Indian Mist
6. Race: Medicean Man - Duchess Dora - Sohraab