Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket

Main feature of the second day of Newmarket´s July Festival is the Falmouth Stakes, a Group One race for fillies and mares over a mile at 16.00 CET. This has attracted an extremely strong international field and we would quite surprised if an English-trained filly wins. Best of the home contingent could be Godolphin´s ex-German Antara (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori - returning from a long suspension).

However we are not sure that she is capable of winning in this company, although she holds First City (David Simcock/ Paul Hanagan) on Epsom form; that one is any case probably inferior to stable companion I´m a Dreamer (Jamie Spencer). Maqaasid (John Gosden/ Richard Hills) was third in the 1,000 Guineas, but well beaten in the French version, where she was handicapped by a bad draw. Memory (Richard Hannon/ Ryan Moore) would have a chance on last season´s form, but she blotted her copybook by refusing to race in the 1,000 Guineas, was beaten at Royal Ascot and does not seem too reliable.

We expect the prize-money to cross the channel as the French runners Sahpresa (Rodolphe Collet/ Christophe Lemaire) and Lily of the Valley (Jean-Claude Rouget/ Christophe Soumillon) have the best form credentials. The former has already won the Sun Chariot twice here, a similar race but run on the Rowley Mile rather than the July Course and started her 2011 campaign with an easy win. However we prefer the latter, who was unbeaten last season, including an impressive win in the Prix de l´Opera (over 10 furlongs), and although beaten on her seasonal debut, that should not be taken too seriously. The drop back to a mile could be more of a problem, and that also applies to South African hope River Jetez (Mike de Kock/ Pat Cosgrave), who has top international form at such big meetings as Meydan and Singapore. However our main hope here is Lilly of the Valley.