Scottish Grand National at Ayr

The Scottish Grand National at Ayr over just over 4 miles at 16.25 CET is clearly not as important as the Aintree race run last week, but it is a major event in its own right and is the centrepiece of the best Scottish N.H. card of the year. With 28 runners it presents the usual problems, even though only 7 of them are in the handicap proper - top-weight Neptune Collonges (Paul Nicholls/ Tony McCoy) being set to concede 15 lbs or more all round. He is pretty smart, but we cannot see him successfully conceding so much weight to his stable companion The Minack (Ruby Walsh), but there are plenty of dangers. Merigo (Andrew Parker/ Timmy Murphy) won this last year, but runner-up Gone to Lunch (Jeremy Scott/ Nick Scholfield) - also runner-up in 2009- meets him on much better terms now. The bookmakers make Chicago Grey (Gordon Elliott/ Paul Carberry) favourite after his success over this trip at Cheltenham; Beshabar (Tim Vaughan/ Richard Johnson) was runner-up then and is now 5 lbs better off. Others to consider are Ouzbeck (Emma Lavelle/ Jack Doyle) and Poker de Sivola (Ferdy Murphy/ Graham Lee).

Gordon Elliott also saddles likely favourite Russian War (Carberry) in the handicap hurdle over 2 3/4 miles at 17.00, an easy winner at Aintree last week. Obviously he could go in again under 7 lbs more but we have been waiting for German-bred Los Nadis (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee) and today he really does seem to have everything in his favour.

The Scottish Champion Hurdle at 15.50 is in fact a handicap, but it is still a pretty hot race and the field includes 3 runners from the real thing at Cheltenham- Overturn (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), 7th, Bygones of Brid (Karen McClintock/ Lee), 10th, and Mille Chief (Alan King/ Robert Thornton), last of 11. Overturn won this last year, but has gone up a massive 30 lbs in the weights since, while Mille Chief´s running at Cheltenham was too bad to be true and he can set the record right here, while Bygones of Brid meets the other two on much better terms now and cannot be discounted.

Nicky Henderson won the Future Champions novice chase at 15.20 last year and has a good chance of scoring again and his two runners Giorgio Quercus (Barry Geraghty) and Nadiya de la Vega (Andrew Tinkler) could well take the first two places.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Semi Colon - Franklino - Charingworth
2. Race: Giorgio Quercus - Stagecoach Pearl - Premier Sagas
3. Race: Mille Chief - Overturn - Sanctuaire
4. Race: Chicago Grey - Beshabar - The Minack
5. Race: Russian War - Bogside - Attaglance
6. Race: I`Msingingtheblues - I`M Delilah - Elite Land
7. Race: The Shoe - Winterwood - Cool Mission
8. Race: Fourth Estate - Frizzo - Toubeera