Lincoln at Doncaster

After some very poor racing on the first 3 days of the new season, the quality is much better at Doncaster, where there are large fields and some very competitive sport. Punters should however tread warily until there is some indication of the effects of the draw (if any), which may not be evident until after the third race, the main event on the card, the Lincoln handicap over the straight mile at 16.10 CET and traditionally the start of the flat season.

With 22 runners this is of course wide open, although the betting market points strongly to Taqleed (John Gosden/ Richard Hills) who has been backed down to clear favouritism. This lightly-raced 4yo ended his 2010 campaign with a 6th place in the Cambridgeshire and ticks most of the boxes required for this race. However conections have been keen to play down his chances on this fast ground and in any case he is not value at around 4-1.

Lowther (Alan Bailey/ Jean-Pierre Guillambert) won the trial for this race, run on the all-weather at Wolverhampton, with Tartan Gigha (Mark Johnston/ Silvestre de Sousa) and Prime Exhibit (Richard Fahey/ Lee Topliss) taking the minor places. Of this trio, we expect Tartan Gigha to come out best. Prime Exhibit was runner-up on this last year; he is one of 6 runners trained by Richard Fahey, who has never won this race. Fahey usually makes a good start to the season, but his string does not seem as forward as usual. Fahey´s stable jockey Paul Hanagan partners Irish Heartbeat, winner of the Spring Mile, the consolation race, last year, which is obviously a hint to the stable´s hopes.

Docofthebay (Dvid Nicholls/ Ian Mongan) is a horse we like and ran really well at Wolverhampton; his best form is at 7 furlongs, but he gets this trip o.k. on fast ground. However our main fancy is Fremont (Richard Hannon/ Ryan Moore), who has been off the track for 11 months, but is lightly raced and well handicapped on his best form. He is drawn near the outside rail, but we hope the high numbers will have an advantage, although there is no evidence for this.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Kalk Bay - Mata Keranjang - Eton Forever
2. Race: Bated Breath - Iver Bridge Lad - Prime Defender
3. Race: Taqleed - Prime Exhibit - Gunner Lindley
4. Race: Redair - Our Boy Jack - Adranian
5. Race: Nabah - Sud Pacifique - Cobbs Quay
6. Race: Ejteyaaz - Tres Coronas - Ocean Transit
7. Race: Abergavenny - Satwa Moon - The Lock Master
8. Race: Zaplamation - Sail Home - King`S Counsel