Grand National this afternoon at Aintree

Officially the name of the race is the John Smith´ s Grand National Handicap Chase, but everybody knows it simply as the Grand National, the world´s most famous race run over 4 1/2 miles and 30 jumps at 17.15 CET this afternoon at Aintree. The course is sold out (73,000 spectators), the weather is perfect and the race is possibly the most open ever - there are reasons for fancying all 40 runners and also reasons for rejecting them all. It is not clear who will start favourite - you can even bet on that! But unless there is a huge last-minute public gamble - as there was last year on Don´t Push It - the bookies are likely to go 10-1 the field.

And it is with Don´t Push It (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) that one has to begin, after all he won the race last year, giving trainer and jockey their first win in this event as well as owner JP McManus (who this time has 5 starters). He has clearly been trained solely with this race in mind ever since, but then so have most of the others. History is against Don´t Push It, as no horse has won twice running since Red Rum in 1974, and no top-weight has won since then either.

There are 12 Irish runners and in our view good prospects of an Irish victory. Willie Mullins has 3 runners, with The Midnight Club (Ruby Walsh) clearly the pick, while others with good chances are Vic Venturi (Dessie Hughes/ Andrew Lynch), Majestic Concorde (Dermot Weld/ Robbie McNamara), Bluesea Cracker (James Motherway/ brother Andrew McNamara), Oscar Time (Martin Lynch/ Sam Waley-Cohen) and Backstage (Gordon Elliott/ Paul Carberry). Any of these would be a big story, especially Oscar Time, bidding to give Sam Waley-Cohen and his father Robert (the owner) an incredible double after their Cheltenham victory. However at the prices our preferences are Majestic Concorde and Vic Venturi.

Of the local hopes, Paul Nicholls, who is having a great meeting, saddles 4 runners, best of whom is What a Friend (Daryl Jacob), 4th in the Gold Cup last time, which is the best form in the race. His owner Sir Alex Ferguson however has to miss the race, as he will watching a football match. Another who is "well-in" according to the handicapper is Quinz (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), who won the Racing Post Trophy after the weights were published, but in our view he does not have the experience to win a race like this. Big Fella Thanks (Ferdy Murphy/ Graham Lee) was 4th last year and he could well be placed again for his new owner and trainer. State of Play (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) and Comply or Die (David Pipe/ Timmy Murphy) have also run twice well in the race before and also merit consideration.

The most popular winners would probably be Character Bulding (John Quinn/ Nina Carberry), 7th last year, who could give Nina (sister of Paul) the first victory ever for a lady jockey, and Ballabriggs (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), whose trainer is the son of the legendary Ginger McCain, who trained Red Rum to win the race 3 times in the 1970s. We have now mentioned 14 of the 40 runners and it is quoite possible that none of them will finish in the first 10 - or even finish! Such is the nature of this fantastic race - in the end luck will play a decisive role and we can only wish our readers good luck with their obligatory bets!