Saturday, April 09, 2011

Grand National this afternoon at Aintree

officially the name of the race is the John Smith´ s Grand National Handicap Chase, but everybody knows it simply as the Grand National, the world´s most famous race run over 4 1/2 miles and 30 jumps at 17.15 CET this afternoon at Aintree. The course is sold out (73,000 spectators), the weather is perfect and the race is possibly the most open ever - there are reasons for fancying all 40 runners and also reasons for rejecting them all. It is not clear who will start favourite - you can even bet on that! But unless there is a huge last-minute public gamble - as tre was last year on Don´t Push It - the bookies are likely to go 10-1 the field.
And it is with Don´t Push It (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) that one has to begin, after all he won the race last year, giving trainer and jockey the first win in this event as well as owner JP McManus (who this time has 5 starters). H has clearly been trained solely with this race in mind ever since, but then so have most of the others. History is against Don´t Push It, as no horse has won twice running since Red Rum in 1974, and no top-weight has won since then either.
There are 12 Irish runners and in our view good prospects of an Irish victory. Willie Mullins has 3 runners, with The Midnight Club (Ruby Walsh) clearly the pick, while others with good chances are Vic Venturi (Dessie Hughes/ Andrew Lynch), Majestic Concorde (Dermot Weld/ Robbie McNamara), Bluesea Cracker (James Motherway/ brother Andrew McNamara), Oscar Time (Martin Lynch/ Sam Waley-Cohen) and Backstage (Gordon Elliott/ Paul Carberry). Any of these would be a big story, especially Oscar Time, bidding to give Sam Waley-Cohen and his father Robert (the owner) an incredible double after their Cheltenham victory. However at the prices our preferences are Majestic Concorde and Vic Venturi.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Spirit Son - Rock On Ruby - Cue Card
2. Race: Finian`S Rainbow - Ghizao - Starluck
3. Race: Peddlers Cross - Binocular - Oscar Whisky
4. Race: Bensalem - Great Endeavour - Reve De Sivola
5. Race: The Midnight Club - Backstage - Oscar Time
6. Race: Via Galilei - Alazan - Plan A
7. Race: Montbazon - Laveroque - Persian Snow