Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Derby trial at Epsom

Epsom opens its doors for the first time in 2011 today and Investec, who also sponsor the Derby here in 6 weeks time, are sponsoring the entire card. Main event is the Derby trial over 10 furlongs at 16.10 CET, but with only 5 runners, this is not much of a genuine classic trial, and it should mainly concern Musawama (John Gosden/ Richard Hills), already winner of two minor races on the all-weather this year and expected to go on to better things, and Borug (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), not disgraced when 3rd at Meydan last time. The Great Metropolitan handicap over 1 1/2 miles at 15.35 used to be a really important race, when run over much further, but is now a pale shadow of its former self and basically just another handicap; Kings Troop (Alan King/ Ryan Moore) is an interesting runner here, having won both his starts over this CD. The City & Suburban handicap, over 10 furlongs, is much more valuable and a much better race. Gosden has two runners here, Beachf ire (William Buick), winner of 4 of his 5 starts so far, and Taqleed (Richard Hills), who would have started favourite for the Lincoln, but was pulled out at the last moment because of the fast ground. However the going may well be even faster here. Three challengers from Yorkshire should pay a leading role here, Mark Johnston´ s pair Tartan Gigha (Kieren Fallon) and Sand Skier (Frankie Dettori) and Richard Fahey´s Ingelby Spirit (Paul Hanagan), an easy winner at Pontefract last time. In a very open race we give slight preference to Sand Skier, who ran well last time at Deauville.

The best race on the all-weather at Southwell is the mile handicap for fillies at 16.55, in which we expect the two top-weights Gracious Melange (Marco Botti/ Jimmy Quinn) and the unbeaten Maristar (Ger Butler/ Darryll Holland) to dominate. There is more all-weather racing this evening at Kempton, where there are some interesting 3yo´s in action at 20.50. Mahmoud al Zarooni has made an excellent start to the season in England, and his runner Parlour Games (Ahmed Ajtebi), as a son of Monsun, should be suited by the longer distance, but Brown Panther (Tom Dascombe/ Richard Kingscote) is by another German sire Shirocco and should be equally at home over this trip.

The other evening meeting is at Newcastle, where ex-GermanTropenfeuer (Jimmy Moffatt/ Paddy Aspell) makes his British debut at 19.05. A winner last year at Deauville, he could well run here, as the opposition does not look strong. Best bet here is Mark Johnston´s Munbaher (Tagdh O´Shea) in the 10 furlongs maiden at 19.35; a beaten favourite on his debut when runner-up at Pontefract, he needs to show only slight improvement to score here.

The only jumps action today is at Hereford, where Sizing Ireland (Nicky Henderson/ Tony McCoy) can get favourite backers off to a good start by winning the maiden hurdle at 15.20; he is nowhere nearly as good as some of the other "Sizing" horses, but does not need to be to win this.

Epsom - betting forecast:
1. Race: Breathless Kiss - Silaah - Beat The Bell
2. Race: Harlestone Times - Zigato - Dynamic Drive
3. Race: Borug - Musawama - Weapon Of Choice
4. Race: Beachfire - Ingleby Spirit - Sand Skier
5. Race: Danish Pastry - Barney Rebel - Calaf
6. Race: Greenflash - Uncle Dermot - Baqaat