Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Ascot today

Ascot stages its first flat racing of the season today with a strong card, the highlight of which is the Group Three Sagaro Stakes over 2 miles at 16.40 CET. Four of the 8 runners ran against each other over 1 3/4 miles at Nottingham last time, where The Betchworth Kid (Alan King/ Hayley Turner) got up on the line to defeat the Queen´s Free Agent (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) by a short head, with Askar Tau (Marcus Tregoning/ George Baker) 3rd and Akmal (John Dunlop/ Richard Hills) 5th. The winner had been racing over hurdles and probably had a fitness advantage then and we do not expect this result to be repeated. In fact we find it quite possible that Akmal, who appeared to need the race badly and whose stable is now coming into form, will come out best this time. The 4yo Theology (Jeremy Noseda/ William Buick), getting weight from all the other, looks a big danger; he ran his best race over this CD when beaten by a short head in the Queen´s Vase. Irish raider Rajik (Cha rlie Swan/ Declan McDonogh), 4th in the Irish St. Leger when last seen, is also interesting, but we cannot imagine that Cesarewitch winner Aaim to Prosper (Brian Meehan/Louis-Philippe Beuzelin) has a chance in this company.
Two listed races back up the main feature. The mile race at 16.05 should in theory go to Zacinto (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), whose 4th place in last year´s Queen Anne Stakes - only 4 lengths behind Goldikova- is easily the best form on offer. However he has not won for almost 2 years and seems not to be the most reliable character. Eton Forever (Roger Varian/ Neil Callan),an easy handicap winner at Doncaster, is possible danger, but we cannot fancy St.Moritz (David and Adrian Nicholls), who won a similar race at Doncaster but has to concede weight all round now.
Weight could also be the deciding factor in the 3yo race over 6 furlongs at 17.15. Libranno, one of three Richard Hannon runners and the choice of Richard Hughes, has the best form here. He was runner-up to Native Khan (runs in the 2,000 Guineas Saturday) in the Craven Stakes last time, but now has to concede 12 lbs to the filly Margot Did (Michael Bell/ Hayley Turner), 5th last time in the Cheveley Park, and this task may be beyond him.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Magic City - Miss Work Of Art - Dawn Lightning
2. Race: Hezmah - Flood Plain - Byrony
3. Race: Zacinto - Eton Forever - St Moritz
4. Race: Free Agent - Rajik - Akmal
5. Race: Libranno - Margot Did - Marine Commando
6. Race: Lord Aeryn - Guest Book - Rezwaan