Saturday, March 12, 2011

Imperial Cup day at Sandown

Although the run-up to Cheltenham is mainly marked by modest sport, today´s valuable card at Sandown is an exception and there is some very competitive racing. The main feature is the Imperial Cup, a listed handicap hurdle over 2 miles at 16.00 CET, which is not only a good race in its own right but also offers the winner the opportunity to pick up valuable bonus if going in again next week at the Festival.

The Pipe family have always tried to take advantage of this and have taken this race, and also the bonus, several times. Their candidate this time is Arrayan, with the unusual jockey booking of Barry Geraghty. After two easy wins, Arrayan unseated his rider on the flat last time at Taunton when looking a certain winner. He is the likely favourite here, and in our opinion his handicap rating is too high for what he has actually achieved, and we prefer Pipe´s other runner, top-weight Ronaldo des Mottes (Timmy Murphy). The two Irish raiders Alpine Eagle (Jessica Harrington/ Tony McCoy) and German-bred Prince of Fire (Charlie Swan/ Paul Carberry), both owned byJP McManus, look dangerous, although they have been done no favours by the U.K. handicapper.

With 24 runners there are plenty of possibilities and in an extremely open race are short list comprises Eradicate (Nicky Henderson/ David Bass), Alazari (Lucy Wadham/ Dominic Elsworth) and Pateese (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson). The opening handicap hurdle over 2 1/2 miles for novices at 14.55 looks equally tricky, though Cucumber Run (McCoy) looks the best of Henderson´s 3 runners and it would nice to see Ruby Walsh ride a winner again - he partners The Reformer for Paul Nicholls. Our choice here is Risaala (Pam Sly/ Gina Andrews), who has been 1/2 all starts this season, always partnered by this very competent lady jockey. The listed bumper for mares at 16.35 in another open race, in which we expect the winner to come from the unbeaten trio of Baby Shine (Wadham/ Leighton Aspell), Zhakiera Spirit (Howard Johnson/ Brian Hughes) and Kentworth Grey Lady (Emma Lavelle/ Jack Doyle).

Highest-rated runner at Sandown is Starluck (Alan Fleming/ McCoy), 5th in last years Champion Hurdle, who runs in the novice chase at 17.10. He won on his fencing debut at Huntingdon in a satisfactory manner, but connections have probably made a wise decision in running him here instead of at Cheltenham. He has only 3 opponents, one of them his pacemaker, and it will be a shock if he is beaten.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Dynaste - Cucumber Run - Owen Glendower
2. Race: Mon Parrain - Five Dream - Prophete De Guye
3. Race: Arrayan - Via Galilei - Eradicate
4. Race: Zhakiera Spirit - Baby Shine - Swincombe Flame
5. Race: Starluck - Mamlook - Harry Tricker
6. Race: Craiglands - Peplum - Holmwood Legend