Saturday, March 05, 2011

Grand National clues at Newbury ...

With Cheltenham now only 10 days away, there are no Grade One runners likely to appear in the interim, but thoughts are now already turning to the Grand National at Aintree on April 9th and there should be plenty of clues for that race to be had this afternoon. Newbury´s Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury at 16.00 CET is certainly a National trial, even though the distance of 2 1/2 miles is fully 2 miles less than the Aintree spectacular. However that did not stop Big Fella Thanks (Ferdy Murphy/ Graham Lee) from winning this last year and going on to finish 4th at Aintree. He shares top-weight here with two horss trained by his ex-, Paul Nicholls, but we think the dangers will come from horses lower down the handicap, such as Russian Flag (Neil King/ Alex Merriam), up in distance, or Swing Bill (David Pipe/ Timmy Murphy), an easy winner last time out. Ikorodu Road (Martin Keighley/ Johnny Farrelly) is ante-post favourite for this race; he fell in the fog last time out and in our v iew is not well handicapped.

Altogether the Newbury card is very strong, but also a minefield for punters with all races keenly contested. The Sawyer (Bob Buckler/ Nathan Sweeney) just failed last time at Ascot and can go one better now in the veterans handicap chase at 15.25, in which Cornish Sett /Caroline Keevil/ Nick Scholfield) is just one of many dangers, while we hope to see German-bred Karky Schultz (James Eustace/ Paddy Brennan), whose dam won the German 1,000 Guineas, run well in the handicap hurdle at 16.35. He was a narrow winner last time at Taunton from Via Galilei (Gary and Jamie Moore) and actually meets that one on better terms now. Ruby Walsh made a very low-key comeback yesterday; today he has 3 rides, all for Paul Nicholls, and in our opinion his best chance of a winner is Rangitoto in the novice hurdle at 17.10. Lordsbridge (Andy Turnell/ Scholfield) rarely wins, but is generally consistent and looks a place banker in the 2 1/4 mile handicap chase at 17.45.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sherwani Wolf - Not Til Monday - Daring Origyn
2. Race: Far More Serious - Regal Heights - Eric`S Charm
3. Race: Swing Bill - Niche Market - Big Fella Thanks
4. Race: Pateese - European Dream - Bally Legend
5. Race: Rangitoto - Ravastree - State Benefit
6. Race: Kack Handed - Lordsbridge - Rimini
7. Race: Hit The Headlines - Awaywiththegreys - Broomfield