Gold Cup day in Cheltenham

Today is the fourth and final day of a superbly successful N.H. Festival at Cheltenham, and today´s card is the best yet. Main feature is of course the Gold Cup over 3 1/4 miles at 16.20 CET, which has possibly its strongest field ever. The field includes 3 previous winners, who have between them won the last 4 runnings of this great race: Kauto Star (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), who won in 2007 and 2009, Denman (Nicholls/ Sam Thomas), 2008, and the reigning champion Imperial Commander (Nigel Twiston-Davies/ Paddy Brennan). The jockeys are in all cases those who rode them to their success here.

A great deal will depend on the weather. The rain has so far stayed away and the track was riding on the fast side of good yesterday, but it is certainly forecast. The trouble is we do not know much rain nd when. Should the ground turn soft, that would certainly be to the advantage of Denman, while if it stgas th way it is, tht would hlpKauto Star. However logically neither of them should beat Imperial Commander, who last ran in November - no problem, he goes well fresh and loves this track, where he has already won 6 times.

The big danger could be the new kid on the block- Long Run (Nicky Henderson/ Sam Waley-Cohen); his amateur rider, whose father owns the horse, always rides him and is perfectly competent. Long Run is only 6, which is more of a problem - no 6yo has won since Mill House in 1963. More to the point isthe fact that he has not shone in his two starts at Cheltenham; his best performances have been at Kempton, a much different track, where he put Kauto Star firmly in his place in the King George in January. Long Run coulkd well win, but in our view thre are too many questions to be asked to make him a good bet.

The Irish challenge does not look as strong as usual. China Rock (Mouse Morris/ Barry Geraghty) and Kempes (Willie Mullins/ Tony McCoy) both go on good ground, but Panorama (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry), possibly the best of th trio, needs it soft and may not even run unless it rains. However we do not believe that any of them can trouble the Brits and make Imperial Cpomander our selection to successfully defend his crown.