Tuesday, March 08, 2011

Exeter, Newcastle and Southwell

There is a huge jackpot at Exeter today, but the card looks very difficult, with double figure fields in every race, and frankly, we will do well to find one winner, let alone 6. Main feature is the so-called Devon National, a handicap chase over 3 3/4 miles at 16.30 CET, but despite the poor prize-money, there is a huge field many of whom are untested at this distance. German-bred Ten Fires (Dessie Hughes/ Jack Doyle) is a raider from Ireland, but he has never run beyond 3 miles, and we discard him for that reason, also Raise you Five (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy). The two David Pipe runners Shaking Hands (Tom Scudamore) and Peut Etre Sivola (Johnny Farrelly) both stay well and are on the short list, but our main hope is Cashel Blue (PR Rodford/ Kieren Burke). Should Raise you Five run well, that would be a clear pointer to Pliny (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) in the next race, who was only a neck behind him last time. For jackpot hunters, our very tentative suggest ions for the remaining races are Pepita Rose at 15.30, Baccalaureate at 16.00, Glitzy d´Ocala at 17.30 and Whitcombe Spirit at 18.00.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Semi Colon - Pepite Rose - Hazy Dawn
2. Race: Switched Off - Roalco De Farges - Come Out Firing
3. Race: Shaking Hands - Ten Fires - Raise You Five
4. Race: Aztec Treasure - Pliny - Victory Parade
5. Race: Glitzy D`Ocala - Stolen Thunder - Silver Accord
6. Race: Whitcombe Spirit - Man Of Leisure - Tavalu




The ground is drying out at Exeter, but it will still be very soft at Newcastle and this could help Beamazad (Malcolm Jefferson/ Denis O´Regan) to follow up his recent Carlisle victory in the handicap chase at 17.50. Top-weight Categorical (Keith and James Reveley) is a CD specialist but seems handicapped to the hilt, so we regard the light-weights Blackpool Billy (Ferdy Murphy/ Graham Lee) and Camden George (Sue Smith/ Henry Oliver) as the main dangers. The handicap hurdle at 16.50 also looks very open; German-bred Euro American (Rose Dobbin/ Keith Renwick) won nicely at Sedgefield a fortnight ago, but that was over fences, so we prefer the lightly-raced Willie Hall (Willie Amos/ Campbell Gillies), runner-up over further last time at Kelso.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Lucky Sunny - Jukebox Melody - Alleged Vanity
2. Race: Cute N You Know It - Final Veto - Overyou
3. Race: The Ferbane Man - Bear Dancing - Lockstown
4. Race: Willie Hall - Euro American - Rolecarr
5. Race: Tiptoeaway - Diamond D`Amour - Lua De Itapoan
6. Race: Categorical - Beamazed - Camden George
7. Race: Pudsey House - Farewell Bluebell - Chapter Five




The usual poor sport on the all-weather track at Southwell this afternoon. Mark Johnston has an excellent record here and today has just one runner, Elusive Fame (Jason Hart) in the mile handicap at 17.40; he was runner-up here over shorter last time with this apprentice on board, but this distance is more suitable. Otherwise David Nicholls has a good chance of landing the 5 furlongs hadicap at 15.10, where both his runners Incomparable (Freddie Tylicki) and CD specialist La Capriosa (Adrian Nicholls) should run well.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Flying Applause - Bold Diva - It`S A Mans World
2. Race: Where`S Reiley - Sleepy Blue Ocean - Incomparable
3. Race: La Estrella - Hindu Kush - Cosmetic
4. Race: Kipchak - Hawaass - Davana
5. Race: Irish Jugger - Light The City - Eton Fable
6. Race: Premier League - Accamelia - Bertbrand
7. Race: Elusive Fame - Trans Sonic - The Lock Master
8. Race: Jonnie Skull - Norcroft - St Ignatius