Sunday, March 27, 2011

Classic trials at Leopardstown

Life is getting serious for the better 3yo´s in Ireland with two early season classic trials (both Group Three) at Leopardstown, plus two very well contested maidens for the same age group. Unfortunately the colts trial at 16.00 CET has cut up badly, with only 4 runners. Aidan O´Brien, whose string is more forward than usual, runs Exodus (Seamus Heffernan) instead of the much higher rated Roderic O´Connor and on 2yo form he should not beat Dunboyne Express (Kevin Prendergast/ Declan McDonogh), who was 5th in the Racing Post Trophy last time. Cocozza (John Ox/ Johnny Murtagh) won maiden at Cork last season in very promising style; this is a big step up, but he could be the one to take out of this race.

There is a much bigger field in the fillies race an hour later, with both O´Brien and Oxx fielding 3 runners. Oxx´ best is surely History Note, the mount of stable jockey Murtagh, but the pecking order of O´Brien´s jockeys is still unclear. Possibly Wild Wind (Colm O´Donoghue) is the choice; she is officially German-bred, although there is nothing German about her pedigree. It is highly unusual for a small owner and trainer to defeat the big battalions in Irish racing, but Katla, owned and trained by dairy farmer John Grogan and ridden by Willie Lee, must have a good chance here based on her juvenile form.

It is quite likely that the 3yo maidens over ten furlongs at 15.30 for fillies and 18.30 for colts and geldings are better contested than the group races. There are well-bred types running her from the big stables - O´Brien, Oxx, Weld and Bolger have runners in both races- and while they are not races to bet on, they should be very informative.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Palinode - Wonder Of Wonders - Eva`S Time
2. Race: Dunboyne Express - Exodus - Cocozza
3. Race: Three Way Stretch - Parc Aux Boules - Solent Ridge
4. Race: Wild Wind - Katla - History Note
5. Race: Elusive Ridge - Broad Meaning - Pires
6. Race: Enchanted Forest - Brecan Boy - Haziyna
7. Race: Apache - Alayir - Casimir Road