Saturday, June 19, 2010

rest of Royal Ascot: day five

The fifth and final day of Royal Ascot with large fields, some exciting finishes guaranteed and some very tricky problems for punters to solve. The opening Chesham Stakes for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs at 15.30 CET has 13 runners, 5 of them winners of their only start, including Jackaroo (Aidan O´Brien/Johnny Murtagh), King Torus (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) and Zaidan (Clive Brittain/ Seb Sanders); one of them might win, but this is not really a race to bet heavily on. The Group Two Hardwicke Stakes over 1 1/2 miles at 16.05 on the other hand offers the best bet of the day in our opinion: Harbinger (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) has won both his starts this year in convincing fashion and now moves up to this level with every chance of winning again. Jukebox Jury (Mark Johnston/ Royston Ffrench) is a very tough and consistent performer, and winner of the Preis von Europa last year. He carries a Group One penalty for that win, so has a tough task, but could still finish in th e money.

The Wokingham Handicap over 6 furlongs at 17.25 is always one of the most difficult races of the meeting and with 28 runners today is no exception. We think a high draw is essential here, and winning form in other big sprint handicaps is also an advantage, so we have narrowed the race down to two: Jimmy Styles (Clive Cox/ Frankie Dettori), who won the Ayr Gld Cup last year with Frankie aboard, and Genki (Roger Charlton/ Steve Drowne), winner of the 2009 Stewards Cup. However the other 26 runners are also not simply running for the hell of it, so anything could happen.

The Duke of Edinburgh Handicap over 1 1/2 miles at 18.00 looks equally tricky. For a change we expect the winner to come from one of the top weights, with Drill Sergeant (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning), who won this last year off the same rating, lightly-raced Imposing (Stoute/ Moore) and Classic Vintage (Amanda Perrett/ Johnny Murtagh) all on our short list, together with Johnston´s other runner Submariner (Dettori), who has 3 of his 4 career starts but has never run in such a fierce race before.

The last race of the meeting is traditionally the Queen Alexandra Stakes at 18.35 over almost 2 3/4 miles. Sometimes this attracts a small field, but this time it looks a really hot event with 18 runners. Our favourite horse Caracciola (Nicky Henderson/ Alan Munro) won this last year at the age of 12, and tries again today under top weight. He should run well this time, but in theory he cannot give weight to better-rated horses such as Aajel (Marcus Tregoning/ Richard Hills) or Munsef (Ian Williams/ Jamie Spencer). Another German-bred Bergo (Gary and Ryan Moore) has - like several of these- been showing good form over hurdles, but the best N.H. performer in the field is probably Sentry Duty (Henderson/ Fallon). We shall be cheering on Caracciola but it will not be easy.