Victoria Cup at Ascot

a typical Saturday card at Ascot this afternoon, with ferociously difficult handicaps, headed by the Victoria Cup over 7 furlongs at 16.25 CET. This valuable event has attracted no fewer than 29 runners, and the first problem will be to decide which side (if any) has an advantage. Perhaps the previous race over the straight mile will give us some clues. The likely favourite is Mabait (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon), who has won his last 4 races, all with Fallon aboard; he has gone up 10 lbs for his latest easy victory, but more of a problem could be his number 16 draw, as the middle of the track is possibly the wrong place to be. If you feel that the stands side is favoured, then Flipando (David Barron/ Jamie Spencer, drawn right on the rail, Irish challenger Dandy Boy (David Marnane/ Colm O´Donoghue) or lightly-raced Oratory (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) could be the three to go for. If there is a bias towards the far side, then Advanced (Kevin and Amy Ryan), Signor Peltro ( Henry Candy/ Dane O´Neill), 4th in this last year, or Marajaa (Willie Musson/ Jamie Mackay) could be on the short list. We are shooting in the dark here, but make course specialists Advanced and Signor Peltro as well as the unexposed Oratory our three against the field, but almost anything is possible.

There is a similar problem with the fillies handicap over the straight mile at 15.50, although there are only 16 runners here. Our three in this event are consistent Alsace Lorraine (James Fanshawe/ Jamie Spencer), drawn on the outside, Badiat Alzaman (Ed Dunlop/ Kieren Fallon), drawn 1, and Blue Angel (Hannon/ Hughes), drawn in the middle and runner-up this CD last time.

Th classiest race on the card is the opening listed event over 1 1/2 miles at 15.20. Ex-German Bergo has won 6 of his 9 races over jumps in the U.K., but has not run on the flat for almost 3 years and is probably best watched. Clear favourite here should be Duncan (John Gosden/ Hughes), who was a close 4th in the Coronation Cup last year; he subsequently ran a couple of poor races, but if anywhere that form, should win this. David Elsworth´s mare Barshiba (Hayley Turner) looks next best.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Duncan - Barshiba - Traffic Guard
2. Race: Blue Angel - Alsace Lorraine - Clairvoyance
3. Race: Mabait - Castles In The Air - Prime Exhibit
4. Race: Kojak - Magic Stella - Chilworth Lad
5. Race: Aaim To Prosper - Satwa Gold - Theola
6. Race: Getcarter - We Have A Dream - New Leyf