Saturday, May 15, 2010

Lockinge Stakes at Newbury

this afternoon´s Lockinge Stakes over a mile at 16.05 CET at Newbury is the first British Group One of the season for older horses and looks likely to go to the all-conquering team of Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes. Their candidate Paco Boy is probably the best 7 furlongs horse in Europe, but is almost equally effective over a mile, e.g. when winning the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot last year. He is also extremely consistent, his only poor run last year coming in this race, when the ground was softer than he likes. Conditions today are perfect and it is hard to see him getting beaten. Lightly-raced Zacinto (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) looks the only conceivable danger. He was well beaten last time in the Breeders Cup Mile, but his other performances were good enough. The other runners, with all due respect, do not look up to Group One standard; Lord Shanakill (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) and Pipedreamer (Kevin Ryan/ Jamie Spencer) are both having their first run for new tra iners, but need to improve to figure here, while the others will do well to get placed.
The main supporting race is the listed race over 1 mile 5 furlongs at 15.00. Ex-German Bergo is an interesting runner here. Now trained by Gary Moore and ridden by son Ryan, he has been campaigned exclusively over jumps since coming to England, winning 6 of his 9 starts. His last run on the flat was when runner-up in the Betty Barclay Rennen in 2007. The main opposition comes from Sabotage (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), one of two Godolphin runners, and Blizzard Blues (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), not disgraced last time here behind Harbinger in a race that is working out very well.
The handicaps look very difficult as usual, but lightly-raced Verdant (Stoute/ Moore) has an obvious chance of defeating his 14 opponents in the 10 furlongs London Gold Cup for 3yo´s at 15.30. Green Moon (Harry Dunlop/ Jamie Spencer) could be the danger.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Lunar Victory - Bay Willow - In Your Time
2. Race: Sabotage - Claremont - Heliodor
3. Race: Verdant - Monterosso - Right Step
4. Race: Paco Boy - Zacinto - Pipedreamer
5. Race: Wildcat Wizard - Striking Spirit - Shifting Star
6. Race: Plume - Alice Alleyne - Sard
7. Race: Engulf - Startle - Ertikaan
8. Race: Lean Machine - En Fuego - Flambeau