Newmarket Guineas meeting

This column is now away until Monday, but first we shall have a quick look at the Newmarket Guineas meeting, with the first two classics of the British season, the 2,000 Guineas at 16.05 CET on Saturday and the 1,000 Guineas at 16.20 on Sunday. 9 were declared on Friday for the colts classic, and the clear favourite is St. Nicholas Abbey (Johnny Murtagh), one of 3 Aidan O´Brien entries.

On 2yo form he is obviously the best horse in the field after his impressive victory in the Racing Post Trophy. The problem is that he has not run since. Of coursplenty of horses have on th Guinas withour a orep race- Sea the Strs last year the moist rcent- but it is always a gamble, specally after the very long and cold winter we have all had. The O´Brien horses that have run in Ireland have for the most part given the impression that they were behind schedule and badly needed the race. Nobody will be surprised if St. Nicholas Abbey wins, and then goes on to win the Derby, for which he is also favourite, but personally, we would rather go against him.

Th alternatives are headed by Elusive Pimpernel (John Dunlop/ Eddie Ahern) and Al Zir (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), second and third to him in the Racing Post Trophy. Logically he should beat them again, but both have ben well backed to reverse the form, and Elusive Pimpernel has an easy win in the Craven Stakes, usually the best trial, to support his case.

Then we have the two runners trained by Richard Hannon, Canford Cliffs (Richard Hughes) and Dick Turpin (Ryan Moore), first and second in the Newbury trial. Canford Cliffs, also a smart 2yo, looked like winning this easily, until throwing his chance away by hanging badly. Many racegoers regarded this as proof that he does not stay a mile and can be discounted for that reason. We are not so sure and believe that he will certainly take revenge on his stable companion and, with different tactics being employed, can still play a major role here. Two others to be considered are Hearts of Fire (Pat Eddery/ Stephane Pasquier) and Awzaan (Mark Johnston/ Richard Hills). Hearts of Fire had an amazing season last year, starting off by winning the Brocklesbury on the opening day of the season. No Brocklesbury winner has gone on to take the following years Guineas since the 19th century, but few of them developed the way that this colt did, and he finished the year by winning a Group Two at Baden-Baden and then Group One in Italy. Awzaan was on the other hand smart from the very start, and is unbeaten after 4 starts.He has never raced beyond 6 furlongs, but there is no reason to imagine that he will not stay a mile. He is also making his seasonal debut, but we rate him the best bet at the likely odds.

At the time of writing the final field for the 1,000 Guineas is not available, but the French raider Special Duty (Criquette Head-Maarek/ Stephane Pasquier) seems certain to start favourite. The problem with her is clearly the distance, that she has class enough was seen last year. The fact that she flopped on her seasonal reapparance is of no great importance- the ground was desperate, she was still not fully wound up. Aidan O´Brien is expected to have only one runner, Devoted to You (Murtagh), but she does not look good enough. The three to concentrate on, in our view, are Music Show (Mick Channon/ Ryan Moore), Seta (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon) and especially the superby-bred Rumoush (Marcus Tregoning/ Richard Hills), a half-sister to last year´s winner Ghanaati.