John Smith`s Grand National, part two

The race is so difficult that one could name 30 horses without getting one placed, but the best form is usually the previous year´s running, so we shall start there. The first six from 2009 are all in the line-up again, headed by Mon Mome (Vanetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), who started at 100-1 last year; however his win was no fluke and he will be one of the favourites this time, especially after his excellent third place - beaten a long way- in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Runner-up was Comply or Die (David Pipe/ Timmy Murphy), who also won in 2008, so is a real Aintree specialist; however on this occasion we think that Murphy may have made the wrong choice, and we prefer his owner´s other runner The Package (Graham Lee), who finished fast but too late at Cheltenham. Third in 2009 was My Will (Paul Nicholls/ Nick Scholfield) but jockey bookings suggest that he is not the main hope of his powerul stable. Fourth was State of Play (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney), whose trainer has be en making extremely bullish noises, especially considering that he has only run once since; he will like the ground and has been heavily backed this week. Fifth and sixth were Cerium (Paul Murphy/ Davy Russell) and Big Fella Thanks, likely to be favourite now because of his powerful connections. Looking back to 2008, the winner was Comply or Die with King John´s Castle (Arthur Moore/ Paul Carberry - Nina´s brother), while Cloudy Lane (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) started favourite but fell; his trainer is the son of the legendary Ginger, who won this race 4 times, including 3 times with Red Rum.
King Johns Castle is one of the main Irish hopes and 6 of the last 11 winners have been trained in Eire. In our veiw, Dessie Hughes has the best chance of leading in an Irish winner; he has two runners, Black Apalachi (Denis O´Regan) and Vic Venturi (Roger Loughran), who have both won the Bechers Chase over these jumps. The former was going well in the lead when he unseated his rider last year and definitely has a chance to atone for that mistake. Backstage (Gordon Elliott/ Davy Condon) and Arbor Supreme (Paul Townend), one of two Willie Mullins´ runners, are other leading Irish hopes.

Of the rest, we would like to mention Royal Rosa (Howard Johnson/ Keith Renwick), who only scraped into the race yesterday after this trainer pulled out his other runner, but this is such an opn rac that anything can hppen. We feel obliged to make a selection, so we make Black Appalachi, State of Play our two against the field, with Royal Rosa the best outsider.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Peddlers Cross - Najaf - Bygones Of Brid
2. Race: Osana - Tataniano - Bergo
3. Race: Zaynar - Khyber Kim - Celestial Halo
4. Race: From Dawn To Dusk - Wogan - Au Courant
5. Race: Big Fella Thanks - Mon Mome - Arbor Supreme
6. Race: Dee Ee Williams - Issaquah - Zanir
7. Race: Don`T Turn Bach - Megastar - Dare Me