Aintree Grand National meeting: first day

the Grand National meeting starts today with an excellent card with going on the soft side of good, which is expected to dry out to good by the time the Grand National itself is run on Saturday afternoon. As always the big question is: how will Cheltenham form hold up? Horses that have had a tough race at the Festival frequenly flop next time ou, while thetrack at Antree is quite different, and basically much easier.
This question is especially pertinent today, as Cheltenham form is represented strongly in every race, and indeed there are Festival winners in the first five races, notably Big Bucks (World Hurdle) in the opening Liverpool Hurdle over 3 miles at 15.00 CET and Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander in the Totesport Bowl over an extended 3 miles at 16.10. Both have pounds in hand on ratings and will not need to run up to their best to win this afternoon. Big Bucks (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) is easily the best staying hurdler in training and his won his last 7 races; his task is made easier by the fact that Time for Rupert, runner-up at the Festival, has been scratched, leaving Tidal Bay (Howard Johnson/ Brian Hughes) as the only conceivable danger. It looks even more simple for Imperial Commander (Nigel Twiston-Davies/ Paddy Brennan); front-runners Nacarat (Tom George/ Tony McCoy) and Carruthers (Mark Bradstock( Mattie Batchelor) should ensure a good pace and Sir Alex Ferguson´s What a Friend (Nicholls/ Walsh) looks the main danger; he won the Lexus Chase last time out, but that was a relatively weak race.
Nigel Twiston-Davies famously saddled the last 3 winners at Cheltenham, and they all try to follow up today. Apart from Imperial Commander, they are Baby Run, partnered by his 17-year-old son Sam, in the Fox Hunters Chase, whose main danger could be race specialist Christy Beamish (S. Taylor/ C. Allen), and Pigeon Island (Brennan) in the handicap chase at 17.30; this looks a very tough race in which Lennon (Howard Johnson/ Denis O´Regan) and Doctor David (Caroline Bailey/ Andrew Thornton) are just 2 of many dangers.
The 4yo hurdle at 15.35 is another difficult race, although the tough front-runner Barizan (Evan Williams/ Tony McCoy) is clearly the one to beat after his good effort in the Triumph, where he finished n front of several of these. Sanctuaire (Nicholls/ Walsh) was a very easy Cheltenham handicap winner, but needs to show further improvement, while the lightly-raced Nafaath and Super Kenny also have chances. The closing handicap hurdle at 18.30 with 24 runners is another minefield for punters, but we hope the ground dries out a bit more for German-bred El Dancer (Lucy Wadham/ Tom O´Brien), who won at this meeting last year.
There is also jumps racing today, at a much lower level, at Taunton, while the Irish meeting at Gowran Park has been abandoned because of waterlogging.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Big Buck`S - Tidal Bay - Bouggler
2. Race: Sanctuaire - Super Kenny - Barizan
3. Race: Imperial Commander - What A Friend - Nacarat
4. Race: Baby Run - Having A Cut - Trust Fund
5. Race: Pigeon Island - Consigliere - Chapoturgeon
6. Race: Somersby - Mad Max - The Nightingale
7. Race: Wishfull Thinking - Majaales - Maraafeq