Thursday, March 18, 2010

Cheltenham Festival, third day: World Hurdle

today´s card is arguably the weakest of the four days of the Cheltenham Festival but it is still excellent and a real minefield for punters. So far th meeting has been a bookies´ benefit, with very few favourites winning, and the hottest favourites so far well beaten, and caution is advised. Main feature is the World Hurdle over 3 miles at 16.20 CET, once again with an odds-on favourite representing the powerful Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh combination - Big Buck´s, last year´s winner. After yesterday´s disappointing showing by Master Minded, confidence may not be so strong, but it is still hard to see how he can get beat. Since being switched from chasing, Big Buck´ s is unbeaten in 6 hurdles races, including 3 over this CD, and on the form book should not lose today.

His most serious opponent is another one who failed to live up to expectations as a chaser- Tidal Way (Howard Johnson/ Denis O´Regan), who came back to form with a CD win in January. His trainer won this race 3 times with Inglis Drever, but has made it clear that he does not regard Tidal Way as being in the same class; however he would probably need to be if he is to defeat Big Buck´s.

Alan King´ s two runners must also be respected, Karabak (Tony McCoy), although he has twice been well beaten by Big Bucks over this CD, and Katchit (Robert Thornton), who after all did win the Champion Hurdle here. Since then he has been struggling a bit and he still not does not appeal as an out-and-out stayer. However he runs his best races here, always a factor at this track.

The only other one who could possibly have a chance is Sentry Duty (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), who is the dark horse in the field, as he is running in this grade and over this trip for the first time. His stable is in great form, which is an added argument in his favour, but on all logic Big Buck´s should win this comfortably.