Cheltenham Festival, first day: Champion Hurdle

They´re off! that familiar roar will echo round the Cotswolds this afternoon at 14.30 CET as the 2010 Cheltenham Festival gets under way. Today´s main feature is the Smurfit Kappa (sponsoring the race for the last time) Champion Hurdle at 16.20 with 12 runners, a tricky race to evaluate because of the question marks hanging over several runners. Both Binocular and Solwhit, ach heavily backed ante-post, were doubtful runners until a few days ago, while the others have been meeting and beating each other regularly with inconclusive results. Even if one assumes that the 3 outsiders (according to the betting) have no chance, the other 9 are only separated by a few pounds and any of them could win.

The most reliable form for this race is usually the previous years running, but that was another inconclusive result, with Punjabi (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), Celestial Halo (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) and Binocular (Henderson/ Tony McCoy) in a three-way photo. None of the 3 has really convinced this season, although at least Punjabi was an easy winner of a minor event last time. Celestial Halo is now equipped with first-time blinkers, but as a front-runner, he may be setting the race up for a strong finisher, in which case Go Native (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry) and Starluck (Aln Fleming/ Timmy Murphy) would come into the reckoning.

They met in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, in which Go Native, who possibly hit the front too early, just held on from the fast-finshing Starluck, who has recently won on the flat to demonstrate his well-being. Although Starluck looked optically unlucky, we expect Go Native to confirm the form. Earlier he had won the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle, a race run at a false pace throughout, so again to be treated with caution. However Go Native is clearly a major contender here - he is unbeaten in 3 races in the UK, all Grade One- and will collect a million pound bonus for connections if he wins today, an added incentive (although none is really needed).

However in our view the one to beat is Khyber Kim (Nigel Twiston-Davis/ Paddy Brennan), who is much improved and finally justifying the high opinion in which he has always been held. He has won his last two races in good style, both here, leaving several of these opponents behind him and is our slction to win from Go Native and Punjabi.