Sunday, February 28, 2010

Fontwell and Kempton (a.w.)

Fontwell has passed an inspection and racing goes ahead, although the going is certain to be testing. This is one of their best meetings of the year, featuring the Grade Two National Spirit Hurdle over 2 1/2 miles at 16.35 CET. Lough Derg (David Pipe/ Christian Williams) is a standing dish here and has won this race for the past two seasons, but there are reasons to take him on today. He does not like really heavy ground, and his recent form is not inspiring. He was well behind Souffleur (Peter Bowen/ Tom O´Brien) over 3 miles last week at Haydock and although he now meets the latter on better terms he was beaten so far that a reversal of the form seems unlikely. Afsoun (Nicky Henderson/ Andrew Tinkler) was even further back, so our preference is for Qosak (Paul Nicholls/ Nick Scholfield) and the ex-French Swap (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy),who as a 4yo filly gets a lot of weight from all the others. However Qosak fares, Paul Nicholls can still land a double here with Ta ke the Breeze in the novice chase at 15.30, and Herecomesthetruth, top-weight in the handicap chase at 16.00. Moon over Miami (Charlie Mann/ Robert Thornton) is probably the best of several ex-Germans running today, but he is another one out of form in his recent races.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Ravenclaw - The Giant Bolster - Whitcombe Spirit
2. Race: Take The Breeze - Chariot Charger - Penn Da Benn
3. Race: Herecomesthetruth - Saphir Des Bois - Heathcote
4. Race: Lough Derg - Qozak - Afsoun
5. Race: Moncadou - Murphy`S Cardinal - Mr Ed
6. Race: Double Dash - Benmore Boy - Near The Water
7. Race: Five Star Wilsham - Caught By Witness - J`Adhere




Kempton goes back to all-weather racing after its big jumps meeting yesterday. An interesting ex-German runner hre is Escardo (Davd Bridgwater/ Derek Nolan), who runs in the claiming race over 11 furlongs at 16.20. He has obviously had his problems and has been unplaced in his 4 races in the U.K. (all over hurdles), but it is worth remembering that he was runner-up in both his German races last year, at the Baden-Baden spring meeting and then as second to Titurel at Dresden. Those pieces of form would certainly be good enough to win this. Conor Dore could win both class 4 handicaps here, over 7 furlongs at 16.55 with Kipchak, and over a mile an hour later with joint top-weight Ilie Nastase, both partnered by Liam Keniry.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Progress - Torres Del Paine - Madlool
2. Race: Roybuoy - Rightcar - Posy Fossil
3. Race: Sahrati - Hurakan - Sedgwick
4. Race: Cut And Thrust - Sunshine Always - Last Sovereign
5. Race: Poppy Gregg - Try Cat - Isle De Maurice
6. Race: Pegasus Again - Ilie Nastase - Hereford Boy