Cheltenham trials at Kempton

With only 2 1/2 weeks before the Cheltenham Festival opens, today is virtually the last chance for trainers to run their big race hopes and several races at Kempton will certainly have a big bearing on events at Prestbury Park. Unfortunately one of the expected stars misses the meeting - Alan King´ s Triumph Hurdle favourite Mille Chief has been withdrawn from the Adonis 4yo hurdle at 16.40 CET because of slight lameness. This can hardly improve his chances for Cheltenham, but King has talked up this horse very confidently in recent days. In his absence the race today could lie between the two ex-French runners Soldanito (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), a winner at Pau last time, and Toubab (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), beaten at odds-on on his British debut, although Ultimate (Brian Ellison/ Keith Mercer) must come into the reckoning on his second place at Carlito Brigante last time.

This is an important day for Nicky Henderson, who desperately needs to get a race into his Champion Hurdle hope (and 2009 winner) Punjabi. He now runs in the Champion Hurdle Trial at 14.00, an additional race to replace last week´s lost Kingwell Hurdle. Punjabi, ridden as usual by stable jockey Barry Geraghty must give away 8lbs and more today, but can still hardly lose this race. However in view of Zaynar´s defeat at 14-1 on last week, one should perhaps be wary of taking long odds-on.

The Henderson/ Geraghty and Nicholls/ Walsh teams also go head to head in the Grade Two novice chase at 15.30 wth Viking Rebel and The Nightingale respectively. The latter is the obvious favourite here, as Viking Rebel´s jumping needs to improve; Nicholls has won this event for the last 4 seasons. Alan King may gain some compensation for Mille Chief´s mishap with the German-bred Salden Licht (Robert Thornton) in the Dovecote novice hurlde at 15.00, but although the ex-Ullmann runner is unbeaten in his British stars, he will need to show further improvement to keep Irish challenger Grey Soldier (Gordon Elliott/ Jason Maguire) and Frascati Park (Nigel Twiston-Davies/ Paddy Brennan) at bay. Henderson runs Ghimaar here, a smart performer on the flat (rated 100+) for Dermot Weld and Galway specialist, who is making his hurdling debut in a very tough race and is possibly best watched for now.

The most valuable race on the card, and also the best betting race, is the Racing Post Trophy, a handicap chase over 3 miles. This is always won by a class horse, and the two top-weights stand out here - Madison du Berlais (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) and Nacarat (Tom George / Tony McCoy), who won the race last year. They both ran at Christmas in the King George over this CD, where the former stayed on well to take a distant second place behind Kauto Star, while Nacarat weakened into fourth after disputing the lead for most of the way. Nacarat is now 4 lbs better off and is our selection. Of the rest ex-Irish Kilcrea Castle (Emma Lavelle/ Jack Doyle), a good third on his British debut, is easily next best.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Punjabi - Treaty Flyer - Border Castle
2. Race: Cabinet Minister - Wolf Moon - River d`Or
3. Race: Salden Licht - Frascati Park - Grey Soldier
4. Race: The Nightingale - Viking Rebel - Mount Oscar
5. Race: Nacarat - Kilcrea Castle - Fistral Beach
6. Race: Soldatino - Ultimate - Toubab
7. Race: Oracle Des Mottes - Noun De La Thinte - Cool Friend
8. Race: Morcambe - Ballagio - Awesome Freddie