Saturday, October 17, 2009

Rest of Newmarket

On any normal day, the Dewhurst Stakes (Group One, 2yo´s, 7 furlongs, 15.25 CET) would be the main event, and it can still be rated the top autumn 2yo race, with the winner almost certainly given the highest rating of the crop. The Irish challengers have an excellent record here, especially those trained by Jim Bolger, who has won this race for the past 3 years. Of his two runners, Chabal (Kevin Manning), now sold to Godolphin, is clearly the choice and he is our selection. Fellow Irishman Aidan O´Brien sets a problem by running 4, with stable jockey Johnny Murtagh partnering Steinbeck; this one has always been rumoured to be the stable´s top 2yo, but has only run once - winning easily in May- as various setbacks have kept him off the course, but he remains a live threat here. A British winner would be a surprise here, with Buzzword (Saeed bin Suroor/ Ahmed Ajtebi) perhaps the best of the home team. The card starts with the Challenge Stakes over 7 furlongs, where we expect du stance speciaslosts Main Aim (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) and Arabian Gleam (Jeremy Noseda/ Johny Murtagh) to be too speedy for Ashram (bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) and Cuis Ghaire (Bolger/ Manning). Ex-German Baila Me (bin Suroor/ Dettori) is an interesting runner in the Pride Stakes for fillies over 1 1/2 miles at 17.50, but Ashalanda (Alain de Royer-Dupré/ Christophe Lemaire) and Crystal Capella (Stoute/ Moore) may be too strong, while Richard Hills can complete a great day by taking the Rockfel Stakes (2yo fillies, 17.15) on Stoute´ s Tabassum and the concluding Jockey Club Cup (2 miles, 18.25) on John Dunlop´ s Akmal. The Cesarewitch over 2 1/4 miles at 16.40 is one of the biggest betting races of the year and with 34 runners almost impossible to predict. A German-bred Caracciola won this last year, and perhaps Sereth (Barney Curley!/ Johnny Murtagh) and Fair Along (Philip Hobbs/ Kieren Fallon) can be in the shake-up. Darley Sun (David Simcock/ Andrea Atzeni) is the logical favourite here, as he is several pounds well in in ratings, but 3yo´s have a poor record in ths race, which also applies to Dettori´s mount Alanbrooke (Mark Johnston- who has 3 runners, as does David Pipe) - so basically, almost anything can happen.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Main Aim - Ashram - Arabian Gleam
2. Race: Chabal - Steinbeck - Silver Grecian
3. Race: Fame And Glory - Sariska - Mawatheeq
4. Race: Darley Sun - Swingkeel - Electrolyser
5. Race: Tabassum - Distinctive - Atasari
6. Race: Crystal Capella - High Heeled - Ave
7. Race: Akmal - Blue Bajan - Urban Poet