Saturday, February 21, 2009

listed races at Lingfield

the all-weather track at Lingfield stages one if its better cards today, with two listed races on the programme. Although they have small fields, they are both very competitive and both have a strong German element. Erika Mäder´s Smarten Die (Jim Crowley), who has won both his 2009 starts very easily at Dortmund, runs in the 6 furlongs race at 15.40 CET and could go well at a big price. The obvious favourite here is Irish raider Duff (Edward Lynam/ Kevin Manning), who has not been seen out since winning two similar races before Christmas, including this CD, where Smarten Die could only finish fifth. Ceremonial Jade (Marco Botti/ John Egan) and Swiss Franc (David Elsworth/ Jamie Spencer) were each behind Duff on both occasions, and the clear danger on current form is Matsunosuke (Barnie Coogan/ Luke Morris), who is in great form and has already won 3 times this year, twice here; however those races were over 5 furlongs, and although he has also won over 6, it could be that th e minimum distance suits him better. The 10 furlongs Winter Derby Trial at 16.15 has only 5 runners, but they are all useful. Suits Me (Tom Tate) is the form horse here, having won 5 of his last 6 starts, including this CD, but meets much better opposition here. He was runner-up here in December behind Dansant, with Re Barolo (Botti/ Egan) fourth and Scintillo (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) fifth, so those two will need to improve, but the other two contestants are more interesting. Kandidate (Clive Brittain/ Robert Winston) is not the most consistent, but was back to form with a win last Sunday, but Persian Storm, once the top lot at Baden-Baden´s yearling sales, is the one we fancy most. He was most disappointing last year for Andre Fabre, when still running in the Baron Ullmann colours, but has since been sold and now makes his first appearance for new trainer Gary Moore with George Baker in the saddle. He is clearly a tricky character, but if he is anywhere near the fo rm he showed in Germany in 2007, he should play a leading role here.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Mellow Mixture - Red Suede Shoes - Leo The Lion
2. Race: Terminate - Tyrrells Wood - Wind Flow
3. Race: Incomparable - Whiskey Creek - Chjimes
4. Race: Matsunosuke - Duff - Ceremonial Jade
5. Race: Suits Me - Re Barolo - Scintillo
6. Race: Mahadee - Majuro - Capricorn Run
7. Race: Bonus - Whistledownwind - Internationaldebut