Sunday, February 08, 2009

listed race at Kempton

following the abandonment of today´s three jumps meetings, the all-weather track at Kempton now stages the only racing in Britain and Ireland, and easily the best race is the listed Ladybird Stakes over a mile at 16.40 CET. 8 runners line up and Chris Wall´s Premio Loco (George Baket) is likely to start a warm favourite. He has developed into one of the best all-weather specialists, and has won his last 4 races on an artificial surface, including both his starts here. However he is meeting better opposition now, while the number one draw is far from ideal at this track. Bonus (Ger Butler/ Chris Catlin) is an obvious danger; he does not win very often, but has plenty of decent a.w. form to his credit, and finished fast but far too late last time over 6 furlongs. Orchard Supreme (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) narrowly defeated Councellor (Stef Liddiard/ Micky Fenton) at Wolverhampton, and should confirm that form as he is now better in at the weights, but the dark horse here is Clive Brittain´s Mahadee (Jim Crowley), wno is moving up sharply in grade but seems capable of further improvement. Most interesting runner on the undercard is La Estrella (despite the name, a gelding), who has been well-placed by trainer Don Cantillon to win his last 5 races. Horses that keep on winning often continue to do so, but he faces a massive task at the weights today, and it is doubtful if he can concede 13 lbs to King´s Head (Gary Moore/ Fergus Sweeney) and 19 lbs to Boi Joli (Marco Botti/ Jimmy Quinn) in the claiming race over 1 mile 3 furlongs at 15.10. Quinn has another winning chance on Guildenstern for trainer Paul Howling in the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.10, in which he can complete a hat-trick off bottom-weight.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Leo The Lion - Solo Choice - Dubai Storming
2. Race: King`S Head - La Estrella - Profit`S Reality
3. Race: Guildenstern - Last Sovereign - Lend A Grand
4. Race: Premio Loco - Bonus - Orchard Supreme
5. Race: Mission Control - Kavaloti - Callisto Moon
6. Race: Muktasb - Davids Mark - Obe Royal
7. Race: Perlachy - Step It Up - Littledodayno