Saturday, January 24, 2009

Trials at Cheltenham

today´s Cheltenham meeting is traditionally regarded as a dress rehearsal for the big March meeting here, although this may not be so relevant today in view of the ground conditions, much heavier than are usually encountered at the festival. However this is still an exceptionally interesting card, starting off with the novice hurdle over 2 1/2 miles at 13.55 featuring the top prospect Diamond Harry (Nick Williams/ Timmy Murphy), who is expected to keep his unbeaten record at the main expense of Bensalem (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) - also unbeaten- and Tataniano (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh). The grade 3 handicap chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 15.05 looks wide open, but two German-breds could play a role here - Moon over Miami (Charlie Mann/ Noel Fehily), who runs his best races here, and oldtimer Foreman (Robbie McLernan), having his first race for trainer Jonjo O´Neill and making his first racecourse appearance for 8 months. Stan (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) won well t his CD at New Year but has been hammered by the handicapper, and our main fancy here is Akilak (Howard Johnson/ Denis O´Regan), back to form at Newcastle before Christmas and whose stable is currently in tremendous form. Johnson and O´Regan are probably more interested in how their stable star Tidal Bay fares in the Grade 2 Christopher and Letherby Chase over 3 miles 1 furlong half an hour later, but our personal view is that he will not get the trip on this ground. The weights here favour Halcon Genelardais (King/ "Choc") and Star de Mohaison (Nicholls/ Barry Geraghty), but it is interesting that Ruby Walsh, who presuambly had the choice, prefers Nicholls´other runner Nozic. Roll Along (Carl Llewellyn) also has chances, but this race is unlikely to have much bearing on the Gold Cup. However the Cleeve Hurdle over 3 miles at 16.45 is certain to influence betting for the World Hurdle, as the field of 8 includes the hot favourite for that event, Nicky Henderson`s Punchestowns (Barry Geraghty). He was most impressive the last two times, including here, but the heavy ground may not be in his favour, and Big Bucks (Nicholls/ Walsh) and German-bred CD specialist Fair Along (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) will certainly test him severely. Walkon (King/ "Choc") won in good style last time and looks the likely winner of the 4yo hurdle at 16.10, a race dominated by the stable in recent years.

Betting forecast:
1.Race: Diamond Harry - Tataniano - Bensalem
2.Race: Ping Pong Sivola - Tricky Trickster - Hennessy
3.Race: Stan - Battlecry - Akilak
4.Race: Halcon Genelardais - Star De Mohaison - Nozic
5.Race: Walkon - Reve De Sivola - Higgy`S Boy
6.Race: Punchestowns - Big Buck`S - Blazing Bailey
7.Race: Culcabock - Spear Thistle - Hernando Royal