Saturday, January 17, 2009

Cheltenham favourites at Ascot

Highlight of an excellent card at Ascot today is the Victor Chandler Chase over 2 miles 1 furlong at 15.15 CET in which Paul Nicholls´ Master Minded (Ruby Walsh) will start at long-odds on defeat his 4 opponents. While this is not a good betting race (unless you think he can get beat) it is still well worth watching, as Master Minded is the highest rated N.H. horse in training and in theory at least can hardly fail to win easily from Petit Robin (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) and ex-French Or Noir de Somoza (Tom Scudamore), having his first run for David Pipe. The sponsor is unhappy with the small field and would like to see the race to revert to a handicap, but he cannot fail to be pleased with the field for his other race, a limited handicap hurdle at 14.05 with 18 runners. This is the toughest race of the day with bookies going 9-1 the field in the early morning. Our very tentative suggestion is Group Captain (Hugh Collingridge/ Richard Killoran). Another big race is th e juvenile novices hurdle at 13.30 featuring Triumph hurdle favourite Zaydar (Nicky Henderson/Barry Geraghty). The grey won is such spectacuölar fashion on his debut that he is almost impossible to oppose here. German-bred Amore Mio (Emma Lavelle/ Jack Doyle) ran badly on his British debut, but could run into a minor place. A more likely German-bred winner is United (Lucy Wadham/Dominic Elsworth), who is clear best on ratings in the mares hurdle at 15.50. The novice chase at 14.40 is also highly interesting. Free World (Nicholls/ Walsh) is the likely favourite, but there is still a very slight question mark over the stable form and we prefer Henrietta Knight´s Calgary Bay (Dominic Elsworth), who is coming back in distance but created a very positive impreession last time at Cheltenham. Finally we expect Dreamy Sweeney to end the day on a high note for Henderson and Geraghty in the novice hurdle at 16.55. He was going well when brought down in the race at Cheltanham won by Ka rabak (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) and now reopposes on 12 lbs better terms.

Betting forecast:
1.Race: Zaynar - Stow - Saticon
2.Race: Lough Derg - Serabad - Chief Yeoman
3.Race: Free World - Calgary Bay - Cool Operator
4.Race: Master Minded - Petit Robin - Or Noir De Somoza
5.Race: United - Tot Of The Knar - Doubly Guest
6.Race: Oracle Des Mottes - Saunders Road - Boomshakalaka
7.Race: Karabak - Kangaroo Court - Cabinet Minister